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Scheme ScoreNothing But Bet · CFB
College football // 2026 Week 1 // Pre-lines board

See the schemebefore the snap.

The box score tells you what happened. Scheme Score starts one step earlier: alignment, coverage tendencies, likely responsibility, and whether a staff change makes last year’s evidence less useful. It explains the setup without pretending to know the outcome.

Open receiver boardOpen CFB research deskBuilt for listed-line research
Board statePre-lines board
Graded364of 476 profiles
A or better55top scheme fits
New DC flags263profiles facing a new DC
Median0.0built Aug 28, 12:13 PM EDT
Evidence boundary

Scheme Score is a matchup feature for player-prop gambling research, not a standalone projection, hit probability, expected value estimate, or stake size. Early-season grades run on prior-season scheme and personnel evidence whose forward value our own backtesting has not validated. Use the grade with a captured line and price, an independent player projection, and current role and injury information. From week 4 the board switches to current-season data; its forward value must still be measured rather than assumed.

Scouting board // strongest first

Receiver board

Start with players who have posted prop lines, then get picky. Filter by player, team, position, alignment, or grade; switch to All players whenever you want the full scouting pool.

Table viewPosted lines
Sorted by Scheme score · high to low
No posted prop lines yetScheme Scores are ready, but this default view waits for a named market with a valid numeric line.
Observed context // CFBD passing

Passing environment

Compare where a passer or offense attacked with what the opponent allowed, explore profiles across the week, and reconstruct the passing-only game story. These results do not change the Scheme Score grade.

Feed coverage
Air yards
98.4%
Location
97.8%
YAC
98.2%

Passing production

How Ashton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico State creates yards

17/27 complete

Completion rate63%27 attempts
aDOT6.3 yd27/27 attempts
Average YAC8.1 yd17/17 completions
Passing yards21327/27 attempts
Covered completed yards213

Composition includes only the 17 of 17 completions with both air and total yards. It is not imputed to the full sample.

CollegeFootballData.comRetrieved Aug 30, 2026, 3:31 AM UTC
Observed matchup

Profile vs comparison

Attempts

Attempts by zone

Where Ashton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico State throws

26/27 located

Location coverage 96.3%. Unlocated attempts stay in the denominator and are not assigned to a zone. Metric totals use only the availability shown in each cell.

Attempts by zone

Where Florida State passing vs New Mexico State defense throws

26/27 located

Location coverage 96.3%. Unlocated attempts stay in the denominator and are not assigned to a zone. Metric totals use only the availability shown in each cell.

Completion rate
63%
vs 63% · difference 0.0 pp
aDOT
6.3 yd
vs 6.3 yd · difference 0.0 yd
Average YAC
8.1 yd
vs 8.1 yd · difference 0.0 yd
Completed-yard air share
35.7%
vs 35.7% · difference 0.0 pp
View exact matchup table
Attempts by pass location with observed difference
LocationAshton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico StateFlorida State passing vs New Mexico State defenseObserved difference
Short Left63/6 complete63/6 complete0
Short Middle65/6 complete65/6 complete0
Short Right117/11 complete117/11 complete0
Deep Left21/2 complete21/2 complete0
Deep Middle11/1 complete11/1 complete0
Deep Right00/0 complete00/0 complete0
URL-backed research view

Metric explorer

Compare like-for-like profiles. The plot never converts missing observations to zero, and every point has an exact table row.

18 of 18 profiles have both selected metrics
Completion rate by Average depth of target18 profiles with both metrics. Each point links to that profile; the exact values also appear in the table below.46%60.5%75%89.5%104%-1.2 yd2.5 yd6.1 yd9.8 yd13.5 ydAverage depth of targetCompletion ratePreston Brown · North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State: aDOT 4 yd, Comp % 100%Preston BrownJayden Maiava · USC vs San José State: aDOT 6.6 yd, Comp % 86.2%Beau Pribula · Virginia vs NC State: aDOT 11.6 yd, Comp % 81.8%Will Wilson · NC State vs Virginia: aDOT -0.2 yd, Comp % 75%Jonas Williams · USC vs San José State: aDOT 9.4 yd, Comp % 71.4%Noah Kim · Eastern Michigan vs Sacramento State: aDOT 9.8 yd, Comp % 71.1%Trey Hedden · New Mexico State vs Florida State: aDOT 10.5 yd, Comp % 66.7%Luke Weaver · San José State vs USC: aDOT 10.1 yd, Comp % 65.6%Davis Warren · Stanford vs Hawai'i: aDOT 9.3 yd, Comp % 64.7%Nathan Hayes · North Dakota State vs Jacksonville State: aDOT 8.3 yd, Comp % 63.6%Ashton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico State: aDOT 6.3 yd, Comp % 63%Ashton DanielsJaden Craig · TCU vs North Carolina: aDOT 6.1 yd, Comp % 62.5%Micah Alejado · Hawai'i vs Stanford: aDOT 6.5 yd, Comp % 60%Billy Edwards · North Carolina vs TCU: aDOT 8.6 yd, Comp % 57.1%Carson Conklin · Sacramento State vs Eastern Michigan: aDOT 7.6 yd, Comp % 54.3%Caden Creel · Jacksonville State vs North Dakota State: aDOT 8.1 yd, Comp % 52.2%CJ Bailey · NC State vs Virginia: aDOT 9.8 yd, Comp % 52.2%Bjorn Jurgensen · Hawai'i vs Stanford: aDOT 12.5 yd, Comp % 50%Bjorn Jurgensen
Exact metric table
Postgame reconstruction

Passing game story

A chronological recap from CFBD passing attempts only. It does not claim score, win probability, rushing, penalties outside the pass record, or complete drive results.

Passing-only
Selected passer

Ashton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico State

Location
26/27
Air yards
27/27
Total yards
27/27
YAC
17/17
  • Short Right11 of 27 attempts—the most-used charted window.
  • 11.1% deep3 deep attempts; unlocated attempts remain in the denominator.
  • 35.7% air shareAcross 17 covered completions, with the remainder created after the catch.
Sequence

Drives with a selected pass attempt

9 passing-active drives
  1. 01
    Q1 8:044/4 complete
    72 pass yd4/4 attempts covered
    44 ydlongest completion
  2. 02
    Q1 0:351/2 complete
    35 pass yd2/2 attempts covered
    35 ydlongest completion
  3. 03
    Q2 10:241/2 complete
    13 pass yd2/2 attempts covered
    13 ydlongest completion
  4. 04
    Q2 7:421/2 complete · 1 INT
    24 pass yd2/2 attempts covered
    24 ydlongest completion
  5. 05
    Q2 2:172/4 complete
    11 pass yd4/4 attempts covered
    7 ydlongest completion
  6. 06
    Q3 13:401/3 complete
    1 pass yd3/3 attempts covered
    1 ydlongest completion
  7. 07
    Q3 7:222/4 complete
    17 pass yd4/4 attempts covered
    16 ydlongest completion
  8. 08
    Q4 12:403/3 complete
    6 pass yd3/3 attempts covered
    11 ydlongest completion
  9. 09
    Q4 6:442/3 complete
    34 pass yd3/3 attempts covered
    25 ydlongest completion
Evidence, not leverage

Longest completions and interceptions

4 flagged attempts
  1. Q1 5:59Explosive completion
    Ashton Daniels → Micahi DanzyDeep Middle · 44 yd

    (06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS25, for 44 yards to the NMS14 (#26 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWN

  2. Q1 0:25Explosive completion
    Ashton DanielsShort Right · 35 yd

    (00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS45, for 35 yards to the NMS09 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWN

  3. Q2 5:34Interception
    Ashton DanielsLocation unavailable · 0 yd

    (05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #5 N.Session at NMS32, End Of Play

  4. Q4 4:32Explosive completion
    Ashton Daniels → Jayvan BoggsShort Middle · 25 yd

    (04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at NMS09, for 25 yards to the NMS01 (#20 D.Cloyd), 1ST DOWN

View all 27 passing attempts
Ashton Daniels · Florida State vs New Mexico State chronological passing attempts
TimeDownPasser / targetOutcomeLocationAirTotalYACCFBD description
Q1 8:041 & 10Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonCompletionShort Right5 yd10 yd5 yd(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU25, for 10 yards to the FSU30 (#34 Z.Davis), 1ST DOWN
Q1 5:593 & 8Ashton Daniels → Micahi DanzyExplosive completionDeep Middle33 yd44 yd11 yd(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS25, for 44 yards to the NMS14 (#26 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWN
Q1 5:261 & 10Ashton Daniels → Micahi DanzyCompletionShort Right-1 yd4 yd5 yd(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS15, for 4 yards to the NMS10 (#0 L.Smith)
Q1 4:452 & 21Ashton DanielsCompletionShort Right-1 yd14 yd15 yd(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS26, for 14 yards to the NMS11 (#5 N.Session), out of bounds
Q1 0:351 & 10Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonIncompleteShort Left3 yd0 ydUnavailable(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to NMS41 QB hurried by #8 B.Vislisel
Q1 0:252 & 10Ashton DanielsExplosive completionShort Right-1 yd35 yd36 yd(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS45, for 35 yards to the NMS09 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWN
Q2 10:241 & 10Ashton Daniels → Micahi DanzyCompletionShort Middle-5 yd13 yd18 yd(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at FSU26, for 2 yards to the FSU33 (#1 J.Charles)
Q2 9:273 & 4Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonIncompleteShort Right5 yd0 ydUnavailable(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU42 broken up by #1 J.Charles
Q2 7:422 & 10Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonExplosive completionDeep Left24 yd24 yd0 yd(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU48, for 24 yards to the FSU48, out of bounds at FSU48, 1ST DOWN
Q2 5:342 & 8Ashton DanielsInterceptionLocation unavailable8 yd0 ydUnavailable(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #5 N.Session at NMS32, End Of Play
Q2 2:171 & 10Ashton Daniels → Jayvan BoggsIncompleteShort Left18 yd0 ydUnavailable(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #15 J.Boggs thrown to NMS00 QB hurried by #34 Z.Davis
Q2 1:523 & 7Ashton Daniels → Ousmane KromahCompletionShort Right-5 yd7 yd12 yd(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #32 O.Kromah caught at NMS20, for 7 yards to the NMS08 (#5 N.Session; #97 H.Davis III), 1ST DOWN
Q2 0:412 & 4Ashton Daniels → Landen ThomasIncompleteShort Right4 yd0 ydUnavailable(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #18 L.Thomas thrown to NMS00 QB hurried by #44 E.Tayou
Q2 0:363 & 4Ashton DanielsCompletionShort Right4 yd4 yd0 yd(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS00, for 4 yards to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)
Q3 13:401 & 10Ashton DanielsCompletionShort Middle-4 yd1 yd5 yd(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at FSU31, for 1 yard to the FSU36 (#26 J.Campbell)
Q3 13:062 & 9Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonIncompleteShort Middle12 yd0 ydUnavailable(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU48 broken up by #5 N.Session
Q3 13:013 & 9Ashton Daniels → Jayvan BoggsIncompleteShort Right4 yd0 ydUnavailable(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Boggs thrown to FSU40
Q3 7:221 & 10Ashton DanielsIncompleteShort Left0 yd0 ydUnavailable(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #3 S.Singleton Jr. thrown to FSU49 QB hurried by #8 B.Vislisel
Q3 7:142 & 10Ashton Daniels → Jayvan BoggsIncompleteDeep Left41 yd0 ydUnavailable(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #15 J.Boggs thrown to NMS10
Q3 6:294 & 4Ashton Daniels → Duce RobinsonCompletionShort Right10 yd16 yd6 yd(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at NMS35, for 16 yards to the NMS29 (#4 D.Peters), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Q3 5:101 & 10Ashton Daniels → Micahi DanzyCompletionShort Left-3 yd1 yd4 yd(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS19, for 1 yard to the NMS15 (#5 N.Session; #14 S.Aupiu)
Q4 12:401 & 10Ashton Daniels → Tre WisnerCompletionShort Left-6 yd-5 yd1 yd(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS30, for 5 yards loss to the NMS29 (#14 S.Aupiu)
Q4 12:022 & 15Ashton Daniels → Landen ThomasCompletionShort Middle6 yd11 yd5 yd(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #18 L.Thomas caught at NMS23, for 11 yards to the NMS18 (#5 N.Session)
Q4 11:223 & 4Ashton Daniels → Tre WisnerCompletionShort Left-3 yd0 yd3 yd(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS21, for 0 yards to the NMS18 (#1 J.Charles; #14 S.Aupiu)
Q4 6:441 & 10Ashton DanielsIncompleteShort Right0 yd0 ydUnavailable(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right thrown to NMS44 QB hurried by #16 G.Peterson
Q4 5:443 & 5Ashton Daniels → Tre WisnerCompletionShort Middle6 yd9 yd3 yd(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS33, for 9 yards to the NMS30 (#1 J.Charles), 1ST DOWN
Q4 4:323 & 6Ashton Daniels → Jayvan BoggsExplosive completionShort Middle17 yd25 yd8 yd(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at NMS09, for 25 yards to the NMS01 (#20 D.Cloyd), 1ST DOWN

Observed 2026 Week 1 passing results. Availability counts remain authoritative; missing values are not imputed. This is descriptive context, not a projection, pick, or Scheme Score weight.

CollegeFootballData.com · captured Aug 29, 11:31 PM EDT
Connected product // Nothing But Bet

Where every CFB visual lives

Scheme Score is the listed-line matchup-fit board. The main research system carries completed-game flow, team and player result views, projection context, source freshness, and explicit gaps.

Method // what it can tell you

What the grade is seeing

What moves the score

Scheme Score asks a football question: does this receiver’s role fit the defense in front of him? It weighs alignment, target funnels, man and zone rates, likely coverage responsibility, and whether a staff change makes last year’s evidence less trustworthy.

What it cannot tell you

A high grade means the structure looks favorable. It does not mean a yardage spike is coming, a posted line is wrong, or a bet is good. Weeks 1 through 3 lean on prior-season evidence. Current-season evidence takes over in Week 4, but both versions remain matchup context, not validated picks.

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