North Carolina Tar Heels at TCU Horned Frogs college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29
- 12:00 PM EDT
- Venue
- Neutral site
- Aviva Stadium
- Captured market
- TCU -7.5
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 15 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
TCU and North Carolina open on a neutral stage.
TCU and North Carolina meet on a neutral stage at Aviva Stadium. The captured market lists TCU as a 7.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 15 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Jeremy Payne (TCU), Jordan Shipp (UNC), and Jordan Dwyer (TCU).
Market frame
TCU is the captured favorite by 7.5; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
15 player distributions are available, led by Jeremy Payne (TCU).
Neutral-site context
Aviva Stadium removes the standard home-field assumption.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00How the game actually moved
Observed play, drive, passing, and efficiency views from one pinned cfbfastR generation. Pregame projections above and below remain frozen in their own model lane.
(01:54) No Huddle TCU rush middle for 31 yards loss to the TCU00, End Of Play. North Carolina SAFETY, clock 01:49 PENALTY TCU Illegal Bat (#48 J.Chance) -1 yard from TCU00 to TCU20
| Play | Quarter | Clock | Away score | Home score | Home win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 72% |
| 1 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 72% |
| 2 | 1 | 14:34 | 0 | 0 | 66% |
| 3 | 1 | 14:14 | 0 | 0 | 67% |
| 4 | 1 | 13:30 | 0 | 0 | 62% |
| 5 | 1 | 12:53 | 0 | 0 | 62% |
| 6 | 1 | 12:16 | 0 | 0 | 64% |
| 7 | 1 | 12:04 | 0 | 0 | 57% |
| 8 | 1 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 56% |
| 9 | 1 | 10:49 | 0 | 0 | 57% |
| 10 | 1 | 10:11 | 0 | 0 | 63% |
| 11 | 1 | 10:07 | 3 | 0 | 62% |
| 12 | 1 | 10:07 | 3 | 0 | 63% |
| 13 | 1 | 9:59 | 3 | 0 | 64% |
| 14 | 1 | 9:22 | 3 | 0 | 65% |
| 15 | 1 | 8:42 | 3 | 0 | 73% |
| 16 | 1 | 8:19 | 3 | 0 | 71% |
| 17 | 1 | 7:58 | 3 | 0 | 69% |
| 18 | 1 | 7:24 | 3 | 0 | 64% |
| 19 | 1 | 7:20 | 3 | 3 | 69% |
| 20 | 1 | 7:20 | 3 | 3 | 65% |
| 21 | 1 | 7:15 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 22 | 1 | 7:05 | 3 | 3 | 67% |
| 23 | 1 | 6:23 | 3 | 3 | 72% |
| 24 | 1 | 5:41 | 3 | 3 | 75% |
| 25 | 1 | 5:26 | 3 | 3 | 77% |
| 26 | 1 | 4:57 | 3 | 3 | 78% |
| 27 | 1 | 4:37 | 3 | 3 | 80% |
| 28 | 1 | 4:00 | 3 | 10 | 86% |
| 29 | 1 | 4:00 | 3 | 10 | 84% |
| 30 | 1 | 3:51 | 3 | 10 | 81% |
| 31 | 1 | 3:36 | 3 | 10 | 78% |
| 32 | 1 | 2:57 | 3 | 10 | 79% |
| 33 | 1 | 2:08 | 3 | 10 | 83% |
| 34 | 1 | 1:24 | 3 | 10 | 76% |
| 35 | 1 | 1:04 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 36 | 1 | 1:04 | 10 | 10 | 66% |
| 37 | 1 | 0:45 | 10 | 10 | 74% |
| 38 | 1 | 0:28 | 10 | 10 | 71% |
| 40 | 1 | 2:55 | 10 | 10 | 62% |
| 41 | 2 | 14:55 | 10 | 10 | 75% |
| 42 | 2 | 14:15 | 10 | 10 | 66% |
| 43 | 2 | 13:55 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 44 | 2 | 13:16 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 45 | 2 | 13:20 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 46 | 2 | 13:09 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 47 | 2 | 12:40 | 10 | 10 | 64% |
| 48 | 2 | 12:07 | 10 | 10 | 65% |
| 49 | 2 | 11:30 | 10 | 10 | 66% |
| 50 | 2 | 10:58 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 51 | 2 | 10:53 | 10 | 10 | 71% |
| 52 | 2 | 10:43 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 53 | 2 | 10:36 | 10 | 10 | 66% |
| 54 | 2 | 9:52 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 55 | 2 | 9:11 | 10 | 10 | 71% |
| 56 | 2 | 8:47 | 10 | 10 | 69% |
| 57 | 2 | 8:21 | 10 | 10 | 72% |
| 58 | 2 | 7:48 | 10 | 10 | 72% |
| 59 | 2 | 7:45 | 10 | 10 | 69% |
| 60 | 2 | 7:16 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 61 | 2 | 7:11 | 10 | 10 | 64% |
| 62 | 2 | 7:05 | 10 | 10 | 65% |
| 63 | 2 | 6:52 | 10 | 10 | 64% |
| 64 | 2 | 6:21 | 10 | 10 | 64% |
| 65 | 2 | 5:44 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 66 | 2 | 5:39 | 10 | 10 | 69% |
| 67 | 2 | 5:30 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 68 | 2 | 5:24 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 69 | 2 | 4:41 | 10 | 10 | 67% |
| 70 | 2 | 4:04 | 10 | 10 | 71% |
| 71 | 2 | 3:31 | 10 | 10 | 68% |
| 72 | 2 | 3:13 | 10 | 10 | 70% |
| 73 | 2 | 2:28 | 10 | 10 | 65% |
| 74 | 2 | 1:55 | 10 | 10 | 61% |
| 75 | 2 | 2:00 | 10 | 10 | 65% |
| 76 | 2 | 1:49 | 12 | 10 | 41% |
| 77 | 2 | 1:44 | 12 | 10 | 59% |
| 78 | 2 | 1:33 | 12 | 10 | 57% |
| 79 | 2 | 1:07 | 12 | 10 | 60% |
| 80 | 2 | 1:01 | 12 | 10 | 53% |
| 81 | 2 | 0:46 | 12 | 10 | 63% |
| 82 | 2 | 0:43 | 12 | 10 | 62% |
| 83 | 2 | 0:31 | 12 | 10 | 62% |
| 84 | 2 | 0:29 | 12 | 10 | 60% |
| 85 | 2 | 0:33 | 12 | 10 | 62% |
| 86 | 2 | 0:33 | 12 | 10 | 51% |
| 87 | 2 | 0:19 | 12 | 10 | 60% |
| 88 | 2 | 0:19 | 12 | 10 | 62% |
| 90 | 3 | 15:00 | 12 | 10 | 62% |
| 91 | 3 | 14:53 | 12 | 10 | 60% |
| 92 | 3 | 14:22 | 12 | 10 | 65% |
| 93 | 3 | 13:58 | 12 | 10 | 65% |
| 94 | 3 | 13:17 | 12 | 10 | 65% |
| 95 | 3 | 12:42 | 12 | 10 | 64% |
| 96 | 3 | 12:18 | 15 | 10 | 54% |
| 97 | 3 | 11:38 | 12 | 10 | 48% |
| 98 | 3 | 11:24 | 12 | 10 | 45% |
| 99 | 3 | 11:04 | 12 | 10 | 45% |
| 100 | 3 | 10:45 | 12 | 10 | 46% |
| 101 | 3 | 10:08 | 12 | 10 | 50% |
| 102 | 3 | 10:04 | 15 | 10 | 45% |
| 103 | 3 | 10:04 | 15 | 10 | 50% |
| 104 | 3 | 9:55 | 15 | 10 | 51% |
| 105 | 3 | 9:39 | 15 | 10 | 51% |
| 106 | 3 | 8:59 | 15 | 10 | 51% |
| 107 | 3 | 8:23 | 15 | 10 | 48% |
| 108 | 3 | 7:34 | 15 | 10 | 53% |
| 109 | 3 | 7:15 | 15 | 10 | 51% |
| 110 | 3 | 7:08 | 15 | 10 | 48% |
| 111 | 3 | 6:30 | 15 | 10 | 43% |
| 112 | 3 | 6:22 | 15 | 10 | 45% |
| 113 | 3 | 6:12 | 15 | 10 | 44% |
| 114 | 3 | 5:39 | 15 | 10 | 58% |
| 115 | 3 | 5:34 | 15 | 10 | 57% |
| 116 | 3 | 5:28 | 15 | 10 | 53% |
| 117 | 3 | 4:49 | 15 | 10 | 61% |
| 118 | 3 | 4:17 | 15 | 10 | 62% |
| 119 | 3 | 3:39 | 15 | 10 | 56% |
| 120 | 3 | 3:25 | 15 | 10 | 54% |
| 121 | 3 | 3:39 | 15 | 10 | 56% |
| 122 | 3 | 2:56 | 15 | 10 | 42% |
| 123 | 3 | 2:48 | 15 | 10 | 43% |
| 124 | 3 | 2:11 | 15 | 10 | 35% |
| 125 | 3 | 1:49 | 15 | 10 | 32% |
| 126 | 3 | 1:31 | 15 | 10 | 33% |
| 127 | 3 | 1:23 | 15 | 10 | 32% |
| 128 | 3 | 0:39 | 15 | 10 | 28% |
| 129 | 3 | 0:07 | 15 | 10 | 26% |
| 131 | 4 | 14:50 | 15 | 10 | 26% |
| 132 | 4 | 14:11 | 15 | 10 | 25% |
| 133 | 4 | 12:54 | 15 | 10 | 21% |
| 134 | 4 | 12:52 | 15 | 10 | 28% |
| 135 | 4 | 12:03 | 15 | 10 | 29% |
| 136 | 4 | 12:45 | 15 | 10 | 26% |
| 137 | 4 | 11:58 | 15 | 10 | 41% |
| 138 | 4 | 11:48 | 15 | 10 | 39% |
| 139 | 4 | 11:09 | 15 | 10 | 37% |
| 140 | 4 | 10:16 | 15 | 10 | 44% |
| 141 | 4 | 9:43 | 15 | 10 | 48% |
| 142 | 4 | 9:16 | 15 | 10 | 44% |
| 143 | 4 | 8:56 | 15 | 10 | 44% |
| 144 | 4 | 8:21 | 15 | 10 | 40% |
| 145 | 4 | 7:46 | 15 | 10 | 48% |
| 146 | 4 | 7:39 | 15 | 10 | 45% |
| 147 | 4 | 6:58 | 15 | 10 | 43% |
| 148 | 4 | 6:17 | 15 | 10 | 53% |
| 149 | 4 | 5:48 | 15 | 10 | 48% |
| 150 | 4 | 5:07 | 15 | 10 | 44% |
| 151 | 4 | 4:43 | 15 | 10 | 42% |
| 152 | 4 | 4:05 | 15 | 10 | 24% |
| 153 | 4 | 3:56 | 15 | 10 | 24% |
| 154 | 4 | 3:11 | 15 | 10 | 20% |
| 155 | 4 | 2:30 | 15 | 10 | 20% |
| 156 | 4 | 2:27 | 15 | 10 | 18% |
| 157 | 4 | 2:20 | 15 | 10 | 9% |
| 158 | 4 | 2:29 | 15 | 10 | 46% |
| 159 | 4 | 1:55 | 15 | 10 | 10% |
| 160 | 4 | 2:20 | 15 | 10 | 12% |
| 161 | 4 | 1:38 | 15 | 10 | 10% |
| 162 | 4 | 1:55 | 15 | 10 | 34% |
| 163 | 4 | 0:58 | 15 | 10 | 9% |
| 164 | 4 | 0:01 | 15 | 10 | 0% |
| UNC | Metric | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| +0.013 | EPA / play | -0.175 |
| 46% | Success rate | 37% |
| 5% | Explosive rate | 3% |
| +0.141 | Pass EPA / play | -0.123 |
| +0.047 | Rush EPA / play | -0.185 |
| 57% | Completion rate | 63% |
| 8.6 yd | Average depth | 6.2 yd |
| 7.3 yd | YAC / completion | 4.5 yd |
| +9.4 pp | Pass over expected | -2.5 pp |
| -3.6 pp | CPOE | +1.8 pp |
| Passer | Receiver | Air yards | Direction | Outcome | Result yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | -2 | right | complete | 20 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 22 | middle | complete | 35 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Mason Humphrey | 14 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 7 | left | complete | 9 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 2 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Kari Ashley | -1 | right | complete | 5 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | -2 | left | complete | 2 |
| Jaden Craig | Ka'Morreun Pimpton | 12 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 10 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 7 | right | complete | 13 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Trech Kekahuna | 15 | right | complete | 21 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 19 | left | complete | 19 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | -3 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 11 | middle | complete | 18 |
| Jaden Craig | Ka'Morreun Pimpton | 20 | middle | complete | 40 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | -2 | left | complete | 1 |
| Jaden Craig | Ka'Morreun Pimpton | 10 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 9 | middle | complete | 13 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Demon June | -4 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | C.J. Sadler | 8 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Payne | 3 | right | complete | 3 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 3 | right | complete | 7 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Scott | 3 | left | complete | 3 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 29 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Kari Ashley | -4 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jon Denman | -1 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 19 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 14 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jacobe Hayes | 14 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Trech Kekahuna | 7 | right | complete | 7 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Mason Humphrey | 17 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Trech Kekahuna | 6 | middle | complete | 10 |
| Jaden Craig | Dane Jones | 8 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Payne | -2 | left | complete | 6 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Scott | 1 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Payne | 0 | left | complete | 14 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 0 | right | complete | 14 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 10 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 5 | right | complete | 7 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 17 | right | complete | 17 |
| Jaden Craig | Terry Shelton | 7 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 16 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 1 | left | complete | 8 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Scott | 9 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Payne | 4 | right | complete | 4 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Mason Humphrey | 10 | middle | complete | 11 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Shamar Easter | 14 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Shamar Easter | 2 | left | complete | 9 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 7 | right | complete | 12 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | C.J. Sadler | 4 | middle | complete | 7 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Benjamin Hall | -3 | right | complete | 2 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jordan Shipp | 24 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Payne | -6 | left | complete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Kari Ashley | 12 | right | complete | 12 |
| Jaden Craig | Jacobe Hayes | 17 | middle | complete | 23 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 3 | middle | complete | 6 |
| Jaden Craig | Ed Small | 4 | right | complete | 4 |
| Jaden Craig | Kari Ashley | 0 | right | complete | 0 |
| Jaden Craig | Jeremy Scott | 10 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Billy Edwards Jr. | Jelani Thurman | 1 | right | complete | 25 |
- Complete
- Touchdown
- Incomplete
- Interception
Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Unit edges from the 2025 charting
Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.
Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.
North Carolina pass protection vs TCU pass rush
North Carolina's pass protection graded 67.7 in 2025 (54th of 136); TCU's pass rush graded 62.2 (108th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for North Carolina's pass protection. North Carolina's pass protection returns only 12.0% of those snaps, so the edge rests on departed production.
TCU pass protection vs North Carolina pass rush
TCU's pass protection graded 71.5 in 2025 (23rd of 136); North Carolina's pass rush graded 67.9 (41st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's pass protection.
North Carolina receiving corps vs TCU coverage
North Carolina's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (91st of 136); TCU's coverage graded 64.4 (71st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for TCU's coverage.
TCU receiving corps vs North Carolina coverage
TCU's receiving corps graded 69.3 in 2025 (11th of 136); North Carolina's coverage graded 63.6 (75th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's receiving corps.
North Carolina rush offense vs TCU run defense
North Carolina's rush offense graded 70.8 in 2025 (112th of 136); TCU's run defense graded 76.3 (2nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for TCU's run defense.
TCU rush offense vs North Carolina run defense
TCU's rush offense graded 75.5 in 2025 (65th of 136); North Carolina's run defense graded 68.3 (53rd). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
North Carolina
7 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan ShippHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 13.64.2–21.7 | — | — | 4.71.0–6.9 | 5518–83 |
| Trech KekahunaHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 7.22.1–12.0 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 358–53 |
| Miles O'NeillHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | QB | 7.51.1–14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Madrid TuckerELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 6.62.3–11.5 | — | — | 3.01.0–5.0 | 298–47 |
| Demon JuneELITE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.6–12.4 | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Hallbalanced · Tier 6 | RB | 5.81.4–9.8 | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan LeacockHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 5.31.4–9.0 | — | — | — | 246–34 |
TCU
8 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy PayneVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 15.05.1–21.7 | — | 7125–109 | — | 140–23 |
| Jordan Dwyerbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 11.93.9–19.1 | — | — | 3.91.0–5.9 | 4917–75 |
| Jeremy ScottSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | WR | 10.43.5–17.8 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.2 | 5014–76 |
| Ed SmallVOLATILE · Tier 6 | WR | 7.62.2–12.0 | — | — | 2.71.0–4.3 | 349–54 |
| Jon DenmanVOLATILE · Tier 6 | RB | 7.41.7–11.8 | — | 365–59 | — | — |
| Major Everhartbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 7.01.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.61.0–4.1 | 318–42 |
| Lafayette KaiuwayVOLATILE · Tier 5 | TE | 6.21.5–9.6 | — | — | — | — |
| Ka'Morreun PimptonHIGH CEILING · Tier 5 | TE | 6.51.7–10.3 | — | — | — | 277–33 |
North Carolina
- Receptions
- 4.7
- Rec yds
- 55
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 35
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 29
- Rec yds
- 24
TCU
- Rush yds
- 71
- Rec yds
- 14
- Receptions
- 3.9
- Rec yds
- 49
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 50
- Receptions
- 2.7
- Rec yds
- 34
- Rush yds
- 36
- Receptions
- 2.6
- Rec yds
- 31
- Rec yds
- 27
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy PayneRB · TCU | Rushing yards | 71.0 | 60.6 | 24.6–109.3 | Shop the line |
| Jordan ShippWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 55.2 | 44.2 | 18.1–83.3 | Shop the line |
| Jordan DwyerWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 49.2 | 38.6 | 16.9–75.1 | Shop the line |
| Jeremy ScottWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 49.6 | 35.4 | 14.0–75.7 | Shop the line |
| Ed SmallWR · TCU | Receiving yards | 34.1 | 26.6 | 9.4–54.4 | Shop the line |
| Trech KekahunaWR · UNC | Receiving yards | 35.0 | 26.8 | 7.8–52.8 | Shop the line |
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 71.0
- Median
- 60.6
- 20th–80th
- 24.6–109.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 55.2
- Median
- 44.2
- 20th–80th
- 18.1–83.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.2
- Median
- 38.6
- 20th–80th
- 16.9–75.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 49.6
- Median
- 35.4
- 20th–80th
- 14.0–75.7
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 34.1
- Median
- 26.6
- 20th–80th
- 9.4–54.4
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 35.0
- Median
- 26.8
- 20th–80th
- 7.8–52.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter that forecast lane. When present, completed-game play, drive, EPA, win-probability, CPOE, and xPass views come from a separately pinned cfbfastR/SportsDataverse snapshot and are postgame descriptions only. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Observed layer
- Aug 30, 4:30 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated