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New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles college football matchup

TL
  1. 01Game report
  2. 02Game flow
  3. 03Unit ledger
  4. 04PFF edges
  5. 05Swing players
  6. 06Projections
  7. 07Prop monitor
Field manual
edition
All CFB matchupsWeek 1 · matchup report
New Mexico StateAggies4–8 (CUSA)atFlorida StateSeminoles5–7 (ACC)
Week 1Sat, Aug 297:00 PM EDTDoak Campbell Stadium
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 29
7:00 PM EDT
Venue
Florida State home
Doak Campbell Stadium
Captured market
FSU -31.5
DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
Player model
18 players
preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Game in 30 seconds

Florida State carries the early number into Doak Campbell Stadium.

New Mexico State travels to Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium. The captured market lists Florida State as a 31.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.

The published player model covers 18 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Ashton Daniels (FSU), Quintrevion Wisner (FSU), and Duce Robinson (FSU).

Lever 1

Market frame

Florida State is the captured favorite by 31.5; recheck the number before using it.

Lever 2

Player projection coverage

18 player distributions are available, led by Ashton Daniels (FSU).

Lever 3

Venue context

Florida State is the designated home team at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Model18 player projections

cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason

As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00
MarketCaptured spread

DraftKings snapshot

As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50Z
FreshnessTimestamped

Preseason model

As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00
Completed-game research

How the game actually moved

Observed play, drive, passing, and efficiency views from one pinned cfbfastR generation. Pregame projections above and below remain frozen in their own model lane.

10–24 final · 1,233 snapshot plays
Observed postgame layer

New Mexico State at Florida State is a completed-game snapshot. EPA, win probability, CPOE, and xPass are cfbfastR model-derived descriptions of plays already run. They do not change League projections, Scheme Score, market prices, or bet recommendations.

Snapshot Aug 30, 2026
Largest win-probability swingNew Mexico State · Q3 8:473rd & 6 · home WP -3.1 pp
102030405040302010STARTGAINFINISH

(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #7 T.Pride caught at FSU32, for 11 yards to the FSU33 (#6 J.Rawls), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#6 J.Rawls) 15 yards from FSU33 to FSU18, 1ST DOWN

Observed game flowFlorida State win probabilityPostgame cfbfastR model · New Mexico State is the inverse
Florida State observed win-probability series
PlayQuarterClockAway scoreHome scoreHome win probability
0115:000098%
1115:000098%
2114:530098%
3114:170098%
4113:470098%
5113:090098%
6112:410098%
7112:000095%
8111:280096%
9110:460094%
10110:160096%
1119:390096%
1219:250096%
1318:440094%
1418:130095%
1518:040095%
1617:470096%
1717:190096%
1816:480096%
1915:590098%
2015:260098%
2114:550097%
2214:450095%
2314:150095%
2413:460094%
2513:050396%
2613:050396%
2713:000397%
2812:250397%
2912:250397%
3012:140397%
3111:380397%
3211:310397%
3311:030397%
3410:350397%
3510:250397%
3610:070397%
38214:530397%
39214:1501098%
40214:1501098%
41213:5501098%
42213:3701098%
43213:2601097%
44212:5301097%
45212:1501097%
46212:0201097%
47211:3201097%
48210:5301097%
49210:4971095%
50210:4071095%
51210:2471095%
5229:5871095%
5329:2771094%
5429:2171094%
5529:1771094%
5629:0671095%
5728:3471096%
5828:2571095%
5928:1771094%
6027:4271095%
6127:1471095%
6226:4471096%
6326:0771095%
6425:3471093%
6525:2971093%
6624:4871095%
6723:5771094%
6823:2571094%
6923:1971094%
7022:5171095%
7122:2971095%
7222:1771095%
7322:1271095%
7421:5271096%
7522:0071096%
7621:1671096%
7720:4171095%
7820:3671797%
7920:3671797%
8020:2971797%
8120:0971797%
83314:5271797%
84314:4171797%
85314:0771798%
86313:4071798%
87313:0671797%
88313:0171797%
89312:5171797%
90312:4171797%
91312:0771797%
92311:3071797%
93310:4971796%
94310:0971796%
9539:4871796%
9639:3571795%
9738:5571796%
9838:4771793%
9938:3071794%
10038:1371796%
10137:36101795%
10237:26101797%
10337:22101797%
10437:14101797%
10537:08101796%
10636:29101798%
10736:10101798%
10835:34101798%
10935:10101798%
11034:35101798%
11133:54101798%
11233:19101798%
11332:43101798%
11432:09102499%
11532:09102499%
Drive table not in this releaseThe play feed is complete enough for game flow, but the current cfbfastR drive asset has no rows for this game.
New Mexico StateObserved team comparisonFlorida State
Observed team efficiency comparison for New Mexico State Aggies and Florida State Seminoles
NMSUMetricFSU
+0.123EPA / play+0.240
35%Success rate47%
9%Explosive rate10%
+0.203Pass EPA / play+0.279
-0.026Rush EPA / play+0.208
63%Completion rate57%
11.0 ydAverage depth7.2 yd
1.9 ydYAC / completion9.8 yd
+9.5 ppPass over expected-5.1 pp
+5.3 ppCPOE-3.1 pp
Home minus awaySigned observed edgesDirection and exact difference
NMSUFSUEPA / play+0.117 home − away
NMSUFSUSuccess rate12% home − away
NMSUFSUExplosive rate1% home − away
NMSUFSUPass EPA / play+0.076 home − away
NMSUFSURush EPA / play+0.234 home − away
FSUNMSUCompletion rate-6% home − away
Air-yard schematicNMSU + FSU pass mapDistance + categorical direction, not tracking XY
-1001020304050LEFTMIDDLERIGHTAIR YARDS FROM LINE OF SCRIMMAGE
NMSU + FSU pass map exact observed targets
PasserReceiverAir yardsDirectionOutcomeResult yards
Trey HeddenJames Jones2middlecomplete9
Trey HeddenTK King4middlecomplete4
Trey HeddenTJ Pride-8rightcomplete3
Trey HeddenAJ Williams7leftcomplete11
Trey HeddenTK King36rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenTK King11rightcomplete11
Trey HeddenTK King1leftcomplete1
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson5rightcomplete10
Ashton DanielsMicahi Danzy33middlecomplete44
Ashton DanielsMicahi Danzy-1rightcomplete4
Ashton DanielsSamuel Singleton Jr.-1rightcomplete14
Trey HeddenTK King28rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenJerry Lydiatt1leftcomplete2
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson3leftincomplete0
Ashton DanielsSamuel Singleton Jr.-1rightcomplete35
Trey HeddenJosiah Thomas0rightcomplete0
Trey HeddenJames Jones-5rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenBrodie Malone-Bradford18rightcomplete20
Trey HeddenMyles Libman5middleincomplete0
Trey HeddenTK King19middlecomplete19
Trey HeddenTJ Pride5middleincomplete0
Trey HeddenBrodie Malone-Bradford33middletouchdown33
Ashton DanielsMicahi Danzy-5middlecomplete13
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson5rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenTK King8rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenDijon Stanley3leftcomplete4
Trey HeddenTK King32rightincomplete0
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson24leftcomplete24
Trey HeddenCarson Su'esu'e0leftcomplete7
Ashton DanielsJayvan Boggs18leftincomplete0
Ashton DanielsOusmane Kromah-5rightcomplete7
Ashton DanielsLanden Thomas4rightincomplete0
Ashton DanielsSamuel Singleton Jr.4righttouchdown4
Ashton DanielsSamuel Singleton Jr.-4middlecomplete1
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson12middleincomplete0
Ashton DanielsJayvan Boggs4rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenTK King9rightcomplete9
Trey HeddenTK King0rightcomplete0
Trey HeddenBrodie Malone-Bradford15leftcomplete15
Trey HeddenLyndon Ravare32rightincomplete0
Trey HeddenTJ Pride12leftcomplete11
TJ Washington Jr.AJ Williams18rightincomplete0
Ashton DanielsSamuel Singleton Jr.0leftincomplete0
Ashton DanielsJayvan Boggs41leftincomplete0
Ashton DanielsDuce Robinson10rightcomplete16
Ashton DanielsMicahi Danzy-3leftcomplete1
  • Complete
  • Touchdown
  • Incomplete
  • Interception
Direct-labeled comparison

Unit ledger

Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.

2025 opponent-adjusted profile
New Mexico StateLower rank is betterFlorida State
122Offense EPA rank16
61Defense EPA rank49
27Explosiveness rank19
94Defensive havoc rank81
PFF historical evidence

Unit edges from the 2025 charting

Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.

2025 measured season
PFF unit edges

Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.

New Mexico State pass protection vs Florida State pass rush

New Mexico State's pass protection graded 56.9 in 2025 (123rd of 136); Florida State's pass rush graded 62.3 (107th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's pass rush.

Florida State pass protection vs New Mexico State pass rush

Florida State's pass protection graded 73.1 in 2025 (17th of 136); New Mexico State's pass rush graded 69.0 (25th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.

New Mexico State receiving corps vs Florida State coverage

New Mexico State's receiving corps graded 62.9 in 2025 (93rd of 136); Florida State's coverage graded 61.8 (98th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.

Florida State receiving corps vs New Mexico State coverage

Florida State's receiving corps graded 66.0 in 2025 (46th of 136); New Mexico State's coverage graded 65.1 (64th). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's receiving corps.

New Mexico State rush offense vs Florida State run defense

New Mexico State's rush offense graded 64.7 in 2025 (135th of 136); Florida State's run defense graded 68.4 (52nd). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Florida State's run defense.

Florida State rush offense vs New Mexico State run defense

Florida State's rush offense graded 76.0 in 2025 (61st of 136); New Mexico State's run defense graded 65.2 (91st). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Florida State's rush offense.

Swing players

Where the player model concentrates

The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.

18 model players

New Mexico State

TK KingWR · SAFE FLOOR8.04.2–16.0Adam DamanteQB · balanced6.82.5–14.9

Florida State

Ashton DanielsQB · ELITE22.311.7–32.5Quintrevion WisnerRB · VOLATILE12.46.0–21.7
Primary model lane

League projected stat lines

Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.

cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason

New Mexico State

8 League projections
Team report
League weekly model projections for New Mexico State Aggies
PlayerPosFantasy ptsPass ydsRush ydsReceptionsRec yds
TK KingSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6WR10.94.2–16.0——4.51.0–6.34718–75
Adam Damantebalanced · Tier 6QB8.32.5–14.912661–202———
Dijon StanleySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6RB6.82.7–12.1—308–531.90.0–3.4100–22
Brodie Malone-BradfordSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6WR6.42.2–9.6——2.81.0–4.8259–41
TJ PrideSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6WR6.41.9–10.0———329–49
Isaiah Rudisonbalanced · Tier 6RB5.61.5–8.0—274–511.60.0–2.9—
Jerry LydiattSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5TE5.41.8–7.7——2.51.0–4.0—
Myles LibmanVOLATILE · Tier 6WR4.41.3–7.0———205–27

Florida State

10 League projections
Team report
League weekly model projections for Florida State Seminoles
PlayerPosFantasy ptsPass ydsRush ydsReceptionsRec yds
Ashton DanielsELITE · Tier 2QB23.711.7–32.5224157–2806215–95——
Quintrevion WisnerVOLATILE · Tier 6RB15.16.0–21.7—7224–108——
Duce RobinsonELITE · Tier 5WR14.44.7–21.5——4.11.0–5.95824–86
Gemari Sandsbalanced · Tier 6RB11.03.8–17.0—4212–682.40.9–3.6170–32
Desirrio RilesSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5TE9.83.1–15.0——2.81.0–4.74214–64
Micahi DanzyVOLATILE · Tier 6WR9.83.2–15.9——2.81.0–4.04314–69
Jayvan BoggsSAFE FLOOR · Tier 6WR8.62.6–12.4——2.71.0–3.93811–58
Landen ThomasVOLATILE · Tier 5TE7.42.2–11.8————
Samuel Singleton Jr.HIGH CEILING · Tier 6RB7.71.5–11.9—3511–62——
Ousmane KromahELITE · Tier 6RB7.11.6–11.8—3510–59——

New Mexico State

TK KingWR · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6
10.9Fantasy points · 4.2–16.0
Receptions
4.5
Rec yds
47
Adam DamanteQB · balanced · Tier 6
8.3Fantasy points · 2.5–14.9
Pass yds
126
Dijon StanleyRB · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6
6.8Fantasy points · 2.7–12.1
Rush yds
30
Receptions
1.9
Rec yds
10
Brodie Malone-BradfordWR · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6
6.4Fantasy points · 2.2–9.6
Receptions
2.8
Rec yds
25
TJ PrideWR · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6
6.4Fantasy points · 1.9–10.0
Rec yds
32
Isaiah RudisonRB · balanced · Tier 6
5.6Fantasy points · 1.5–8.0
Rush yds
27
Receptions
1.6
Jerry LydiattTE · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5
5.4Fantasy points · 1.8–7.7
Receptions
2.5
Myles LibmanWR · VOLATILE · Tier 6
4.4Fantasy points · 1.3–7.0
Rec yds
20

Florida State

Ashton DanielsQB · ELITE · Tier 2
23.7Fantasy points · 11.7–32.5
Pass yds
224
Rush yds
62
Quintrevion WisnerRB · VOLATILE · Tier 6
15.1Fantasy points · 6.0–21.7
Rush yds
72
Duce RobinsonWR · ELITE · Tier 5
14.4Fantasy points · 4.7–21.5
Receptions
4.1
Rec yds
58
Gemari SandsRB · balanced · Tier 6
11.0Fantasy points · 3.8–17.0
Rush yds
42
Receptions
2.4
Rec yds
17
Desirrio RilesTE · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5
9.8Fantasy points · 3.1–15.0
Receptions
2.8
Rec yds
42
Micahi DanzyWR · VOLATILE · Tier 6
9.8Fantasy points · 3.2–15.9
Receptions
2.8
Rec yds
43
Jayvan BoggsWR · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 6
8.6Fantasy points · 2.6–12.4
Receptions
2.7
Rec yds
38
Landen ThomasTE · VOLATILE · Tier 5
7.4Fantasy points · 2.2–11.8
Samuel Singleton Jr.RB · HIGH CEILING · Tier 6
7.7Fantasy points · 1.5–11.9
Rush yds
35
Ousmane KromahRB · ELITE · Tier 6
7.1Fantasy points · 1.6–11.8
Rush yds
35
Game prediction not published

The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.

Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.

Monitor only

Props to compare after a line posts

Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.

Shop the line
Player props to compare only after a sportsbook posts an actual line and price
PlayerMarketProjectionMedian20th–80thStatus
Ashton DanielsQB · FSUPassing yards224.4230.3157.3–279.5Shop the line
Quintrevion WisnerRB · FSURushing yards72.454.624.2–107.8Shop the line
Duce RobinsonWR · FSUReceiving yards57.646.924.0–86.1Shop the line
Gemari SandsRB · FSURushing yards42.230.912.2–67.5Shop the line
TK KingWR · NMSUReceiving yards46.536.717.7–75.1Shop the line
Desirrio RilesTE · FSUReceiving yards42.236.314.4–64.1Shop the line
Ashton DanielsQB · FSU

Passing yards

Projection
224.4
Median
230.3
20th–80th
157.3–279.5
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Quintrevion WisnerRB · FSU

Rushing yards

Projection
72.4
Median
54.6
20th–80th
24.2–107.8
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Duce RobinsonWR · FSU

Receiving yards

Projection
57.6
Median
46.9
20th–80th
24.0–86.1
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Gemari SandsRB · FSU

Rushing yards

Projection
42.2
Median
30.9
20th–80th
12.2–67.5
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

TK KingWR · NMSU

Receiving yards

Projection
46.5
Median
36.7
20th–80th
17.7–75.1
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Desirrio RilesTE · FSU

Receiving yards

Projection
42.2
Median
36.3
20th–80th
14.4–64.1
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Methodology and data boundary

Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter that forecast lane. When present, completed-game play, drive, EPA, win-probability, CPOE, and xPass views come from a separately pinned cfbfastR/SportsDataverse snapshot and are postgame descriptions only. Missing data stays missing.

CFB research desk All matchups All team reports
Line snapshot
Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
Model update
Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
Observed layer
Aug 30, 4:30 PM EDT
Game prediction
Not validated
Game source Full 2026 schedule
Previous matchupHawai'i at StanfordNext matchupMemphis at UNLV