Skip to content

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal college football matchup

TL
  1. 01Game report
  2. 02Game flow
  3. 03Unit ledger
  4. 04PFF edges
  5. 05Swing players
  6. 06Projections
  7. 07Prop monitor
Field manual
edition
All CFB matchupsWeek 1 · matchup report
Hawai'iRainbow Warriors8–4 (Mountain West)atStanfordCardinal4–8 (ACC)
Week 1Sat, Aug 297:00 PM EDTStanford Stadium
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 29
7:00 PM EDT
Venue
Stanford home
Stanford Stadium
Captured market
STAN -5.5
DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
Player model
14 players
preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
Game in 30 seconds

Stanford carries the early number into Stanford Stadium.

Hawai'i travels to Stanford at Stanford Stadium. The captured market lists Stanford as a 5.5-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.

The published player model covers 14 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Micah Ford (STAN), Micah Alejado (HAW), and Dylan Rizk (STAN).

Lever 1

Market frame

Stanford is the captured favorite by 5.5; recheck the number before using it.

Lever 2

Player projection coverage

14 player distributions are available, led by Micah Ford (STAN).

Lever 3

Venue context

Stanford is the designated home team at Stanford Stadium.

Model14 player projections

cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason

As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00
MarketCaptured spread

DraftKings snapshot

As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50Z
FreshnessTimestamped

Preseason model

As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00
Completed-game research

How the game actually moved

Observed play, drive, passing, and efficiency views from one pinned cfbfastR generation. Pregame projections above and below remain frozen in their own model lane.

7–23 final · 1,233 snapshot plays
Observed postgame layer

Hawai'i at Stanford is a completed-game snapshot. EPA, win probability, CPOE, and xPass are cfbfastR model-derived descriptions of plays already run. They do not change League projections, Scheme Score, market prices, or bet recommendations.

Snapshot Aug 30, 2026
Largest win-probability swingHawai'i · Q3 13:364th & 7 · home WP -81.8 pp
102030405040302010STARTGAINFINISH

(13:36) #47 G.Heil punt 91 yards to the STAN00 blocked by #39 C.Eckhardt, out of bounds at STAN00. Stanford SAFETY, clock 13:32

Observed game flowStanford win probabilityPostgame cfbfastR model · Hawai'i is the inverse
Stanford observed win-probability series
PlayQuarterClockAway scoreHome scoreHome win probability
0114:530063%
1114:530062%
2114:420064%
3114:180064%
4113:410057%
5113:350062%
6113:220063%
7113:040065%
8112:550068%
9112:450062%
10112:400062%
11112:450069%
12112:100063%
13111:510067%
14111:400064%
15111:090062%
16111:030062%
17110:210075%
18110:030075%
1919:230073%
2018:430077%
2118:370783%
2218:370781%
2318:370790%
2418:260780%
2518:080782%
2617:460783%
2717:100783%
2816:440785%
2916:370785%
3016:370784%
3116:320783%
3215:510783%
3315:110782%
3414:580784%
3515:110782%
3614:200783%
3713:220780%
3813:070781%
3912:580780%
4012:190779%
4111:410780%
4211:090779%
4310:330780%
4410:330781%
4510:250781%
47214:560779%
48214:460778%
49214:130778%
50214:020779%
51213:160773%
52212:510776%
53212:340779%
54212:400777%
55212:120771%
56211:360773%
57211:000771%
58210:187764%
59210:230758%
60210:180782%
61210:187771%
62210:127762%
6329:347768%
6429:347771%
6529:347772%
6629:347771%
6729:347772%
6829:347773%
6929:3471481%
7027:0271479%
7126:5171481%
7226:1271482%
7326:0671483%
7425:5571485%
7525:3771484%
7625:1271483%
7724:4071485%
7823:5871488%
7923:2071486%
8022:3971485%
8122:2971485%
8221:5771484%
8322:0071484%
8421:5271482%
8521:4571486%
8621:3371487%
8721:3971488%
8821:2071486%
8921:1171488%
9021:0471488%
9120:5971487%
9220:5271486%
9320:4971479%
9420:3771480%
9520:2071481%
9620:1671482%
9720:1671484%
9820:0571484%
9920:0271486%
101315:0071480%
102314:5571484%
103314:1871485%
104314:0571485%
105313:367234%
106313:2171492%
107313:1471484%
108312:4371486%
109312:1671487%
110311:4171491%
111311:2071491%
112310:4371490%
113310:3771487%
11439:5772193%
11539:5172096%
11639:5172194%
11739:4472195%
11839:0872397%
11938:2972397%
12038:1072397%
12237:3572398%
Drive table not in this releaseThe play feed is complete enough for game flow, but the current cfbfastR drive asset has no rows for this game.
Hawai'iObserved team comparisonStanford
Observed team efficiency comparison for Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors and Stanford Cardinal
HAWMetricSTAN
-0.156EPA / play+0.198
32%Success rate43%
5%Explosive rate6%
-0.226Pass EPA / play+0.153
-0.185Rush EPA / play+0.238
56%Completion rate55%
6.6 ydAverage depth10.0 yd
1.9 ydYAC / completion5.9 yd
+22.0 ppPass over expected-0.9 pp
-2.6 ppCPOE-4.0 pp
Home minus awaySigned observed edgesDirection and exact difference
HAWSTANEPA / play+0.354 home − away
HAWSTANSuccess rate11% home − away
HAWSTANExplosive rate1% home − away
HAWSTANPass EPA / play+0.379 home − away
HAWSTANRush EPA / play+0.423 home − away
STANHAWCompletion rate-1% home − away
Air-yard schematicHAW + STAN pass mapDistance + categorical direction, not tracking XY
-1001020304050LEFTMIDDLERIGHTAIR YARDS FROM LINE OF SCRIMMAGE
HAW + STAN pass map exact observed targets
PasserReceiverAir yardsDirectionOutcomeResult yards
Davis WarrenBenji Blackburn4leftcomplete5
Davis WarrenBenji Blackburn12middleincomplete0
Micah AlejadoCam Barfield-5leftcomplete2
Micah AlejadoTama Uiliata5rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoKainoa Carvalho2leftincomplete0
Davis WarrenMicah Ford-6rightincomplete0
Davis WarrenJonAnthony Hall18middlecomplete57
Micah AlejadoCam Barfield5middlecomplete5
Davis WarrenJonAnthony Hall17middleincomplete0
Davis WarrenBenji Blackburn11middlecomplete11
Micah AlejadoDeVon Rice-6leftcomplete-5
Micah AlejadoTre' Griffiths5rightcomplete9
Micah AlejadoDevin Alves6middlecomplete10
Micah AlejadoKainoa Carvalho0leftincomplete0
Micah AlejadoTama Uiliata3rightcomplete4
Micah AlejadoAudric Harris3rightcomplete3
Micah AlejadoJamih Otis2rightincomplete0
Davis WarrenLiam Thorpe15middleincomplete0
Davis WarrenJordan Onovughe3leftcomplete4
Micah AlejadoBlaze Kamoku22middlecomplete24
Micah AlejadoBlaze Kamoku1leftcomplete-1
Micah AlejadoDevin Alves31middleincomplete0
Micah AlejadoBlaze Kamoku19leftcomplete19
Micah AlejadoTitan Lacaden-3rightcomplete0
Micah AlejadoDevin Alves5leftcomplete9
Davis WarrenAtticus Joseph10leftcomplete22
Davis WarrenJordan Onovughe7leftincomplete0
Davis WarrenAtticus Joseph6righttouchdown6
Micah AlejadoDevon Tauaefa3rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoCarson Brown14leftincomplete0
Davis WarrenMicah Ford1leftcomplete1
Davis WarrenAiden Black22rightincomplete0
Davis WarrenZion Robinson6rightcomplete9
Micah AlejadoTama Uiliata22rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoDevin Alves19middleincomplete0
Davis WarrenLiam Thorpe8rightcomplete19
Davis WarrenMicah Ford3rightincomplete0
Davis WarrenJonAnthony Hall16leftincomplete0
Davis WarrenBenji Blackburn4rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoDeVon Rice-1middlecomplete-1
Micah AlejadoAudric Harris16rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoCarson Brown6rightincomplete0
Davis WarrenLangdon Horace9rightcomplete9
Micah AlejadoSitani Mikaele-1rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoDeVon Rice-1leftcomplete2
Davis WarrenLiam Thorpe4leftcomplete7
Davis WarrenZion Robinson47middlecomplete48
Davis WarrenAiden Black2rightincomplete0
Micah AlejadoTama Uiliata6leftcomplete8
  • Complete
  • Touchdown
  • Incomplete
  • Interception
Direct-labeled comparison

Unit ledger

Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.

2025 opponent-adjusted profile
Hawai'iLower rank is betterStanford
109Offense EPA rank103
80Defense EPA rank68
33Explosiveness rank75
58Defensive havoc rank118
PFF historical evidence

Unit edges from the 2025 charting

Offense units paired against the defense units they will face, from snap-weighted 2025 PFF grades, national ranks, and returning-snap shares. Historical form, never a game prediction.

2025 measured season
PFF unit edges

Each offense unit paired against the defense unit it will actually face, using 2025 snap-weighted PFF grades and national ranks, with returning-snap caveats where an edge rests on departed players. Measured history, not a game prediction.

Hawai'i pass protection vs Stanford pass rush

Hawai'i's pass protection graded 59.8 in 2025 (107th of 136); Stanford's pass rush graded 61.8 (115th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.

Stanford pass protection vs Hawai'i pass rush

Stanford's pass protection graded 51.3 in 2025 (131st of 136); Hawai'i's pass rush graded 71.1 (8th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Hawai'i's pass rush.

Hawai'i receiving corps vs Stanford coverage

Hawai'i's receiving corps graded 63.0 in 2025 (90th of 136); Stanford's coverage graded 62.4 (89th). On 2025 form this pairing is effectively a push.

Stanford receiving corps vs Hawai'i coverage

Stanford's receiving corps graded 63.3 in 2025 (85th of 136); Hawai'i's coverage graded 65.1 (62nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Hawai'i's coverage.

Hawai'i rush offense vs Stanford run defense

Hawai'i's rush offense graded 72.5 in 2025 (100th of 136); Stanford's run defense graded 66.7 (72nd). On 2025 form that is a modest edge for Stanford's run defense.

Stanford rush offense vs Hawai'i run defense

Stanford's rush offense graded 77.1 in 2025 (52nd of 136); Hawai'i's run defense graded 62.6 (120th). On 2025 form that is a clear edge for Stanford's rush offense.

Swing players

Where the player model concentrates

The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.

14 model players

Hawai'i

Micah AlejadoQB · balanced12.75.0–23.6Pofele AshlockWR · balanced9.74.1–20.2

Stanford

Micah FordRB · VOLATILE12.85.2–20.6Dylan RizkQB · VOLATILE12.53.1–19.9
Primary model lane

League projected stat lines

Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.

cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason

Hawai'i

8 League projections
Team report
League weekly model projections for Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
PlayerPosFantasy ptsPass ydsRush ydsReceptionsRec yds
Micah Alejadobalanced · Tier 6QB15.25.0–23.6197130–276———
Pofele Ashlockbalanced · Tier 6WR13.14.1–20.2——4.41.0–6.35517–84
Cam Barfieldbalanced · Tier 6RB11.73.9–19.0—4312–652.00.9–3.4140–25
Tama UiliataHIGH CEILING · Tier 6WR6.81.7–11.2————
Audric HarrisVOLATILE · Tier 6WR5.71.4–9.2———256–35
Carson BrownHIGH CEILING · Tier 6WR5.51.8–9.3——2.51.0–3.9287–43
Devon TauaefaHIGH CEILING · Tier 5TE5.91.6–9.5——2.41.0–3.6287–38
DeVon Ricebalanced · Tier 6RB5.30.9–9.5————

Stanford

6 League projections
Team report
League weekly model projections for Stanford Cardinal
PlayerPosFantasy ptsPass ydsRush ydsReceptionsRec yds
Micah FordVOLATILE · Tier 6RB13.95.2–20.6—6921–98——
Dylan RizkVOLATILE · Tier 6QB11.03.1–19.917364–254———
Davis WarrenHIGH CEILING · Tier 6QB10.81.8–19.116747–267———
Caden HighELITE · Tier 6WR10.33.5–16.1——3.81.0–5.84314–67
Marcus Brownbalanced · Tier 6WR7.32.2–11.8——2.61.0–4.0319–47
Benji BlackburnSAFE FLOOR · Tier 5TE6.51.9–10.0———267–40

Hawai'i

Micah AlejadoQB · balanced · Tier 6
15.2Fantasy points · 5.0–23.6
Pass yds
197
Pofele AshlockWR · balanced · Tier 6
13.1Fantasy points · 4.1–20.2
Receptions
4.4
Rec yds
55
Cam BarfieldRB · balanced · Tier 6
11.7Fantasy points · 3.9–19.0
Rush yds
43
Receptions
2.0
Rec yds
14
Tama UiliataWR · HIGH CEILING · Tier 6
6.8Fantasy points · 1.7–11.2
Audric HarrisWR · VOLATILE · Tier 6
5.7Fantasy points · 1.4–9.2
Rec yds
25
Carson BrownWR · HIGH CEILING · Tier 6
5.5Fantasy points · 1.8–9.3
Receptions
2.5
Rec yds
28
Devon TauaefaTE · HIGH CEILING · Tier 5
5.9Fantasy points · 1.6–9.5
Receptions
2.4
Rec yds
28
DeVon RiceRB · balanced · Tier 6
5.3Fantasy points · 0.9–9.5

Stanford

Micah FordRB · VOLATILE · Tier 6
13.9Fantasy points · 5.2–20.6
Rush yds
69
Dylan RizkQB · VOLATILE · Tier 6
11.0Fantasy points · 3.1–19.9
Pass yds
173
Davis WarrenQB · HIGH CEILING · Tier 6
10.8Fantasy points · 1.8–19.1
Pass yds
167
Caden HighWR · ELITE · Tier 6
10.3Fantasy points · 3.5–16.1
Receptions
3.8
Rec yds
43
Marcus BrownWR · balanced · Tier 6
7.3Fantasy points · 2.2–11.8
Receptions
2.6
Rec yds
31
Benji BlackburnTE · SAFE FLOOR · Tier 5
6.5Fantasy points · 1.9–10.0
Rec yds
26
Game prediction not published

The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.

Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.

Monitor only

Props to compare after a line posts

Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.

Shop the line
Player props to compare only after a sportsbook posts an actual line and price
PlayerMarketProjectionMedian20th–80thStatus
Micah FordRB · STANRushing yards69.260.120.8–97.7Shop the line
Micah AlejadoQB · HAWPassing yards196.5202.7130.3–276.4Shop the line
Dylan RizkQB · STANPassing yards173.0194.963.7–254.3Shop the line
Pofele AshlockWR · HAWReceiving yards54.842.716.6–84.1Shop the line
Cam BarfieldRB · HAWRushing yards43.432.812.1–65.1Shop the line
Davis WarrenQB · STANPassing yards166.5184.747.2–266.9Shop the line
Micah FordRB · STAN

Rushing yards

Projection
69.2
Median
60.1
20th–80th
20.8–97.7
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Micah AlejadoQB · HAW

Passing yards

Projection
196.5
Median
202.7
20th–80th
130.3–276.4
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Dylan RizkQB · STAN

Passing yards

Projection
173.0
Median
194.9
20th–80th
63.7–254.3
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Pofele AshlockWR · HAW

Receiving yards

Projection
54.8
Median
42.7
20th–80th
16.6–84.1
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Cam BarfieldRB · HAW

Rushing yards

Projection
43.4
Median
32.8
20th–80th
12.1–65.1
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Davis WarrenQB · STAN

Passing yards

Projection
166.5
Median
184.7
20th–80th
47.2–266.9
Status
Shop the line

No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.

Methodology and data boundary

Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter that forecast lane. When present, completed-game play, drive, EPA, win-probability, CPOE, and xPass views come from a separately pinned cfbfastR/SportsDataverse snapshot and are postgame descriptions only. Missing data stays missing.

CFB research desk All matchups All team reports
Line snapshot
Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
Model update
Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
Observed layer
Aug 30, 4:30 PM EDT
Game prediction
Not validated
Game source Full 2026 schedule
Previous matchupSacramento State at Eastern MichiganNext matchupNew Mexico State at Florida State