Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State Bison college football matchup
- Kickoff
- Sat, Aug 29
- 5:30 PM EDT
- Venue
- North Dakota State home
- Fargodome
- Captured market
- NDSU -7
- DraftKings · Aug 11, 10:09 PM EDT
- Player model
- 6 players
- preseason · cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1
North Dakota State carries the early number into Fargodome.
Jacksonville State travels to North Dakota State at Fargodome. The captured market lists North Dakota State as a 7-point favorite. That number came from DraftKings and is a dated snapshot, not a live quote.
The published player model covers 6 featured skill players in this matchup. Its highest median fantasy forecasts belong to Caden Creel (JXST), Deondre Johnson (JXST), and Ronnel Johnson (JXST).
Market frame
North Dakota State is the captured favorite by 7; recheck the number before using it.
Player projection coverage
6 player distributions are available, led by Caden Creel (JXST).
Venue context
North Dakota State is the designated home team at Fargodome.
cfb-fantasy-quantile-2026.1 · preseason
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00DraftKings snapshot
As of 2026-08-12T02:09:50ZPreseason model
As of 2026-08-13T21:34:55+00:00How the game actually moved
Observed play, drive, passing, and efficiency views from one pinned cfbfastR generation. Pregame projections above and below remain frozen in their own model lane.
(06:40) Shotgun Jacksonville St. rush middle for 14 yards loss to the JSU00 fumbled by Jacksonville St. at JSU14 recovered by NDSU #48 B.Schiltz at JSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:41 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
| Play | Quarter | Clock | Away score | Home score | Home win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 64% |
| 1 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 64% |
| 2 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 65% |
| 3 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 62% |
| 4 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 64% |
| 5 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 71% |
| 6 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 73% |
| 7 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 73% |
| 8 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 76% |
| 9 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 0 | 75% |
| 10 | 1 | 15:00 | 0 | 7 | 82% |
| 11 | 1 | 10:01 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 12 | 1 | 10:09 | 0 | 7 | 90% |
| 13 | 1 | 9:54 | 0 | 7 | 86% |
| 14 | 1 | 9:33 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 15 | 1 | 9:07 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 16 | 1 | 8:49 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 17 | 1 | 8:12 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 18 | 1 | 8:10 | 0 | 7 | 87% |
| 19 | 1 | 7:56 | 0 | 7 | 86% |
| 20 | 1 | 8:10 | 0 | 7 | 86% |
| 21 | 1 | 7:32 | 0 | 7 | 86% |
| 22 | 1 | 6:58 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 23 | 1 | 6:51 | 0 | 7 | 82% |
| 24 | 1 | 6:43 | 0 | 7 | 84% |
| 25 | 1 | 6:51 | 0 | 7 | 85% |
| 26 | 1 | 6:38 | 0 | 7 | 83% |
| 27 | 1 | 6:24 | 0 | 7 | 82% |
| 28 | 1 | 5:45 | 0 | 7 | 79% |
| 29 | 1 | 5:26 | 0 | 7 | 79% |
| 30 | 1 | 4:47 | 0 | 7 | 80% |
| 31 | 1 | 4:16 | 7 | 7 | 69% |
| 32 | 1 | 4:09 | 7 | 7 | 71% |
| 33 | 1 | 4:16 | 7 | 7 | 57% |
| 34 | 1 | 4:02 | 7 | 7 | 73% |
| 35 | 1 | 3:24 | 7 | 7 | 70% |
| 36 | 1 | 2:45 | 7 | 7 | 72% |
| 37 | 1 | 2:03 | 7 | 7 | 72% |
| 38 | 1 | 1:29 | 7 | 7 | 70% |
| 39 | 1 | 0:49 | 7 | 7 | 74% |
| 40 | 1 | 0:13 | 7 | 7 | 72% |
| 41 | 1 | 0:12 | 7 | 7 | 70% |
| 43 | 2 | 14:53 | 7 | 7 | 66% |
| 44 | 2 | 14:05 | 7 | 7 | 77% |
| 45 | 2 | 13:33 | 7 | 7 | 76% |
| 46 | 2 | 12:59 | 7 | 7 | 72% |
| 47 | 2 | 12:20 | 7 | 7 | 72% |
| 48 | 2 | 11:48 | 7 | 7 | 70% |
| 49 | 2 | 11:20 | 7 | 7 | 71% |
| 50 | 2 | 10:46 | 7 | 10 | 78% |
| 51 | 2 | 10:46 | 7 | 10 | 70% |
| 52 | 2 | 10:46 | 7 | 10 | 80% |
| 53 | 2 | 10:37 | 7 | 10 | 69% |
| 54 | 2 | 9:54 | 7 | 10 | 68% |
| 55 | 2 | 9:20 | 7 | 10 | 70% |
| 56 | 2 | 8:44 | 7 | 10 | 68% |
| 57 | 2 | 7:20 | 7 | 10 | 73% |
| 58 | 2 | 7:11 | 7 | 10 | 75% |
| 59 | 2 | 6:37 | 7 | 10 | 77% |
| 60 | 2 | 6:25 | 7 | 10 | 76% |
| 61 | 2 | 6:24 | 7 | 10 | 74% |
| 62 | 2 | 6:25 | 7 | 10 | 77% |
| 63 | 2 | 6:01 | 7 | 10 | 74% |
| 64 | 2 | 5:24 | 7 | 10 | 72% |
| 65 | 2 | 5:17 | 7 | 10 | 69% |
| 66 | 2 | 5:06 | 7 | 10 | 69% |
| 67 | 2 | 4:50 | 7 | 10 | 72% |
| 68 | 2 | 5:06 | 7 | 10 | 69% |
| 69 | 2 | 4:14 | 7 | 10 | 71% |
| 70 | 2 | 3:39 | 7 | 10 | 74% |
| 71 | 2 | 3:00 | 7 | 10 | 74% |
| 72 | 2 | 2:50 | 7 | 10 | 74% |
| 73 | 2 | 2:10 | 7 | 10 | 72% |
| 74 | 2 | 2:07 | 7 | 10 | 67% |
| 75 | 2 | 2:13 | 7 | 10 | 67% |
| 76 | 2 | 1:53 | 7 | 10 | 67% |
| 77 | 2 | 2:06 | 7 | 10 | 66% |
| 78 | 2 | 1:45 | 7 | 10 | 66% |
| 79 | 2 | 1:53 | 7 | 10 | 75% |
| 80 | 2 | 1:42 | 7 | 10 | 73% |
| 81 | 2 | 1:46 | 7 | 10 | 73% |
| 82 | 2 | 1:29 | 7 | 10 | 76% |
| 83 | 2 | 1:16 | 7 | 10 | 77% |
| 84 | 2 | 1:11 | 7 | 10 | 77% |
| 85 | 2 | 1:06 | 7 | 10 | 79% |
| 86 | 2 | 0:57 | 7 | 10 | 80% |
| 87 | 2 | 0:44 | 7 | 10 | 79% |
| 88 | 2 | 0:47 | 7 | 10 | 82% |
| 89 | 2 | 0:35 | 7 | 10 | 79% |
| 90 | 2 | 0:18 | 7 | 17 | 94% |
| 91 | 2 | 0:18 | 7 | 17 | 92% |
| 92 | 2 | 0:17 | 7 | 17 | 92% |
| 94 | 3 | 15:00 | 7 | 17 | 88% |
| 95 | 3 | 14:36 | 7 | 17 | 87% |
| 96 | 3 | 14:15 | 7 | 17 | 87% |
| 97 | 3 | 13:31 | 7 | 17 | 89% |
| 98 | 3 | 12:45 | 7 | 17 | 86% |
| 99 | 3 | 12:03 | 7 | 17 | 87% |
| 100 | 3 | 11:55 | 7 | 17 | 87% |
| 101 | 3 | 11:40 | 7 | 17 | 84% |
| 102 | 3 | 11:19 | 7 | 17 | 86% |
| 103 | 3 | 11:19 | 7 | 17 | 92% |
| 104 | 3 | 11:14 | 7 | 17 | 91% |
| 105 | 3 | 11:05 | 7 | 17 | 92% |
| 106 | 3 | 10:35 | 7 | 17 | 93% |
| 107 | 3 | 9:58 | 7 | 17 | 93% |
| 108 | 3 | 9:31 | 7 | 17 | 93% |
| 109 | 3 | 8:47 | 7 | 17 | 93% |
| 110 | 3 | 8:04 | 7 | 17 | 93% |
| 111 | 3 | 7:37 | 7 | 17 | 90% |
| 112 | 3 | 6:59 | 7 | 20 | 93% |
| 113 | 3 | 6:59 | 7 | 20 | 92% |
| 114 | 3 | 6:59 | 7 | 20 | 94% |
| 115 | 3 | 6:51 | 7 | 20 | 94% |
| 116 | 3 | 6:41 | 7 | 27 | 1% |
| 117 | 3 | 6:35 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 118 | 3 | 6:41 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 119 | 3 | 6:21 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 120 | 3 | 5:42 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 121 | 3 | 5:20 | 7 | 27 | 98% |
| 122 | 3 | 4:56 | 7 | 27 | 98% |
| 123 | 3 | 4:36 | 7 | 27 | 98% |
| 124 | 3 | 4:26 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 125 | 3 | 3:57 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 126 | 3 | 3:46 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 127 | 3 | 3:46 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 128 | 3 | 3:46 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 129 | 3 | 3:33 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 130 | 3 | 3:11 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 131 | 3 | 2:48 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 132 | 3 | 2:58 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 133 | 3 | 2:09 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 134 | 3 | 1:30 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 135 | 3 | 1:02 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 136 | 3 | 0:20 | 7 | 27 | 100% |
| 137 | 3 | 0:20 | 7 | 27 | 100% |
| 139 | 4 | 14:54 | 7 | 27 | 100% |
| 140 | 4 | 14:14 | 7 | 27 | 100% |
| 141 | 4 | 13:36 | 7 | 27 | 99% |
| 142 | 4 | 13:31 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 143 | 4 | 13:31 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 144 | 4 | 13:31 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 145 | 4 | 13:23 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 146 | 4 | 12:58 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 147 | 4 | 12:43 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 148 | 4 | 12:22 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 149 | 4 | 12:03 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 150 | 4 | 11:45 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 151 | 4 | 11:16 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 152 | 4 | 11:10 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 153 | 4 | 10:29 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 154 | 4 | 10:11 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 155 | 4 | 9:27 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 156 | 4 | 9:20 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 157 | 4 | 9:27 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 158 | 4 | 8:34 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 159 | 4 | 7:51 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 160 | 4 | 7:19 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 161 | 4 | 6:57 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 162 | 4 | 6:06 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 163 | 4 | 5:16 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 164 | 4 | 4:59 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 165 | 4 | 4:34 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 166 | 4 | 4:16 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 167 | 4 | 3:39 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 168 | 4 | 2:59 | 7 | 30 | 100% |
| 169 | 4 | 2:17 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 170 | 4 | 2:17 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 171 | 4 | 2:17 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 172 | 4 | 2:04 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 173 | 4 | 1:56 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 174 | 4 | 2:00 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 175 | 4 | 1:55 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 176 | 4 | 1:29 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 177 | 4 | 1:21 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 178 | 4 | 1:11 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 179 | 4 | 0:48 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| 180 | 4 | 0:27 | 7 | 33 | 100% |
| JXST | Metric | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| -0.443 | EPA / play | +0.153 |
| 40% | Success rate | 49% |
| 2% | Explosive rate | 8% |
| -0.493 | Pass EPA / play | +0.238 |
| -0.184 | Rush EPA / play | +0.110 |
| 52% | Completion rate | 65% |
| 13.0 yd | Average depth | 6.3 yd |
| 2.3 yd | YAC / completion | 2.7 yd |
| -1.5 pp | Pass over expected | -7.1 pp |
| -7.2 pp | CPOE | +2.5 pp |
| Passer | Receiver | Air yards | Direction | Outcome | Result yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Hayes | Jackson Williams | 4 | right | complete | 7 |
| Nathan Hayes | Reis Kessel | 15 | middle | complete | 17 |
| Nathan Hayes | Jackson Williams | 4 | left | complete | 4 |
| Nathan Hayes | Reis Kessel | 2 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Caden Creel | Darius Cannon | 8 | right | complete | 6 |
| Nathan Hayes | Reis Kessel | 4 | middle | complete | 4 |
| Caden Creel | Darius Cannon | 33 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Nathan Hayes | Mekhi Collins | 13 | right | incomplete | 0 |
| Nathan Hayes | Mekhi Collins | 17 | middle | incomplete | 0 |
| Nathan Hayes | Jackson Williams | 3 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Caden Creel | Luke Gilbert | 10 | left | complete | 10 |
| Nathan Hayes | DJ Scott | -4 | right | complete | 7 |
| Nathan Hayes | Reis Kessel | 3 | right | complete | 3 |
| Nathan Hayes | Isiah St. Romain | 5 | left | complete | 5 |
| Nathan Hayes | Mekhi Collins | 6 | right | complete | 11 |
| Nathan Hayes | Jackson Williams | 10 | left | complete | 13 |
| Caden Creel | Ronnel Johnson | 34 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Caden Creel | Receiver unavailable | 18 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Caden Creel | Deondre Johnson | 6 | left | incomplete | 0 |
| Caden Creel | Khristian Lando | -3 | left | complete | 6 |
| Caden Creel | Khristian Lando | -2 | left | incomplete | 0 |
- Complete
- Touchdown
- Incomplete
- Interception
Unit ledger
Every bar rewards the better low-number rank, while exact values stay visible for both teams.
Where the player model concentrates
The two highest median model players for each side. Context-only prior and baseline rows are excluded.
League projected stat lines
Means and 20th–80th percentile ranges for every published model player; missing stats stay missing.
Jacksonville State
4 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelELITE · Tier 6 | QB | 17.05.7–25.9 | 15584–228 | 5214–89 | — | — |
| Deondre JohnsonELITE · Tier 6 | WR | 11.93.8–18.6 | — | — | 3.31.0–5.3 | 5215–78 |
| Ronnel Johnsonbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.72.2–10.7 | — | — | 3.01.0–4.6 | 338–49 |
| Jalen LikelySAFE FLOOR · Tier 6 | RB | 5.01.2–9.2 | — | 201–29 | — | — |
North Dakota State
2 League projections| Player | Pos | Fantasy pts | Pass yds | Rush yds | Receptions | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah PattersonHIGH CEILING · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.9–10.6 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.8 | — |
| Jordan McCantsbalanced · Tier 6 | WR | 6.91.9–10.8 | — | — | 2.51.0–3.9 | 318–50 |
Jacksonville State
- Pass yds
- 155
- Rush yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.3
- Rec yds
- 52
- Receptions
- 3.0
- Rec yds
- 33
- Rush yds
- 20
North Dakota State
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Receptions
- 2.5
- Rec yds
- 31
The League does not publish a game-side, total, or moneyline prediction without a validated game-market model.
Generated Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT · collegefootballdata · Player outcomes are ranges, not guarantees. No game-side, total, or moneyline prediction is inferred.
Props to compare after a line posts
Model ranges are not recommendations. No player-prop line or price is captured in this artifact.
| Player | Market | Projection | Median | 20th–80th | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB · JXST | Passing yards | 155.2 | 152.0 | 83.5–227.6 | Shop the line |
| Deondre JohnsonWR · JXST | Receiving yards | 52.2 | 40.0 | 15.3–77.9 | Shop the line |
| Ronnel JohnsonWR · JXST | Receiving yards | 33.4 | 24.2 | 7.5–49.3 | Shop the line |
| Jeremiah PattersonWR · NDSU | Receptions | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.0–3.8 | Shop the line |
| Jordan McCantsWR · NDSU | Receiving yards | 31.3 | 22.6 | 7.7–50.2 | Shop the line |
| Jalen LikelyRB · JXST | Rushing yards | 19.7 | 7.1 | 0.8–29.1 | Shop the line |
Passing yards
- Projection
- 155.2
- Median
- 152.0
- 20th–80th
- 83.5–227.6
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 52.2
- Median
- 40.0
- 20th–80th
- 15.3–77.9
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 33.4
- Median
- 24.2
- 20th–80th
- 7.5–49.3
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receptions
- Projection
- 2.5
- Median
- 1.5
- 20th–80th
- 1.0–3.8
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Receiving yards
- Projection
- 31.3
- Median
- 22.6
- 20th–80th
- 7.7–50.2
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Rushing yards
- Projection
- 19.7
- Median
- 7.1
- 20th–80th
- 0.8–29.1
- Status
- Shop the line
No captured player-prop line. Compare the model range only after a market posts.
Methodology and data boundary
Schedule and venue facts come from the committed ESPN 2026 catalog. Spreads are dated market snapshots, prioritizing DraftKings where available. Player stat lines and fantasy ranges come only from the versioned weekly CFB quantile model; prior and baseline context do not enter that forecast lane. When present, completed-game play, drive, EPA, win-probability, CPOE, and xPass views come from a separately pinned cfbfastR/SportsDataverse snapshot and are postgame descriptions only. Missing data stays missing.
- Line snapshot
- Aug 11, 10:11 PM EDT
- Model update
- Aug 13, 5:34 PM EDT
- Observed layer
- Aug 30, 4:30 PM EDT
- Game prediction
- Not validated