College football/Week 1/Player prop gambling research
Best bets board
Every Over proposition that cleared the published gates, ranked by a published formula over three independent signals. This is research, not advice: it carries no stake sizing and no bankroll guidance, and no wager is placed from it.
- Projection generated
- Sep 2, 3:39 PM EDT
- When the ranking ran, not when you are reading it
- Lines captured
- See each row
- Every price carries its own capture time
- Availability reviewed
- Sep 2, 5:14 PM EDT
- Depth chart plus reviewed news, never an injury report
- Eligible
- 41
- 22 Receiving Yards | 14 Rushing Yards | 3 Receptions | 2 Passing Yards
- Tier A
- 5
- All three votes, both artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where graded
- Tier B
- 36
- Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A bar
- Generated
- 2026-09-03T01:10:42Z
- When the ranking ran, not when you are reading it
- Projection snapshot
- eef1ca41d906...
- Market input snapshot behind every model number on this board
Research only. This board ranks player-prop Over propositions by a published formula over model, RotoWire and FantasyPoints signals; it is not advice, it carries no stake sizing or bankroll guidance, and no wager is placed from it. Every price is a captured quote with its own as-of time, not a live one: re-check the line, the price and an official inactives list before acting on any row. Availability designations come from a licensed depth chart plus hand-reviewed news, never from an official team injury report.
Line, price, and the votes behind it
Each row carries its posted line, the American price for the Over, how many sportsbooks quoted it, and which of the three independent signals say Over: the model, RotoWire, and FantasyPoints.
A captured quote with its own as-of time
Every price traces to a recorded capture. The operator that quoted it is kept in the source record and its hash, as docs/GAMBLING_DATA_REQUIREMENTS.md requires, and is never published: a row states how many sportsbooks quoted the number and when, never which.
No stake, no bankroll, no wager
Nothing here sizes a bet or places one. Availability rests on a licensed depth chart and hand-reviewed news, never an official injury report, so every row still needs a live inactives check before kickoff.
41 propositions, Tier A first
Tier A needs all three independent votes, both quantile artifacts on the same side of the price, and a Scheme Score grade of B or better where a grade exists. A row the Scheme Score never graded can still reach Tier A and carries the NO_SCHEME_GRADE flag, so a missing grade is never read as a good one. Tier B cleared every gate without reaching that bar, and is ranked on the same score, so the two are directly comparable. Sort any column; open Evidence on a row for its PFF profile, role, line move, kickoff, and capture stamp.
Availability is not an official reportResearch only, and NOT an official team injury report. Every designation here comes from a licensed depth chart or from a hand-reviewed news item with cited sources, so every row is UNVERIFIED relative to an official report: FBS teams publish no mandatory availability report for this to have been checked against. Each row states what its status rests on and when that source said it. Re-check an official inactives list before acting on any of it.A player who is not in this feed has NO availability source on disk. That is not the same as available, and it must not be rendered as one.4258 designations across 138 teams, from generation rotowire-depth-2026-c7dc3fd2170a, observed 2026-09-02T21:14:31Z.
| Availability | Detail | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winston WatkinsTierA: All three votes, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where gradedLSU vs Clemson · WR | Receiving Yards Over 26.5 | -1062 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.68 units above the line (+73% of the line). +0.68 spread units73.2% of the line1 unit = 28.7 | A+favorable slot funnel vs Clemson | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Winston Watkins: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 2 | Eric Singleton Jr.TierA: All three votes, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where gradedFlorida vs Florida Atlantic · WR | Receiving Yards Over 34.5 | -1142 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.74 units above the line (+78% of the line). +0.74 spread units78.3% of the line1 unit = 36.5 | A+favorable slot funnel vs Florida Atlantic | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Eric Singleton Jr.: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 3 | Bo JacksonTierA: All three votes, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where gradedOhio State vs Ball State · RB | Receiving Yards Over 7.5 | -118sportsbook | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.51 units above the line (+105% of the line). +0.51 spread units104.9% of the line1 unit = 15.6 | Bfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Bo Jackson: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 4 | Evan DickensTierA: All three votes, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where gradedBoston College vs Cincinnati · RB | Rushing Yards Over 54.5 | -1102 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.31 units above the line (+26% of the line). +0.31 spread units26.2% of the line1 unit = 46.7 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Evan Dickens: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 5 | Chris Johnson Jr.TierA: All three votes, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score of B or better where gradedClemson vs LSU · RB | Rushing Yards Over 29.5 | +1092 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.28 units above the line (+32% of the line). +0.28 spread units31.7% of the line1 unit = 33.6 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Chris Johnson Jr.: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 6 | Kam ShanksTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barWake Forest vs Akron · WR | Receiving Yards Over 18.5 | -1122 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +1.19 units above the line (+186% of the line). +1.19 spread units186.3% of the line1 unit = 28.8 | Amildly favorable slot funnel vs Akron | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Kam Shanks: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 7 | Antwan RaymondTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barRutgers vs Massachusetts · RB | Receiving Yards Over 5.5 | -114sportsbook | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.80 units above the line (+202% of the line). +0.80 spread units202.1% of the line1 unit = 13.8 | Bunfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Antwan Raymond: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 8 | Cataurus HicksTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barPittsburgh vs Miami (OH) · WR | Receiving Yards Over 38.5 | -1132 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.62 units above the line (+47% of the line). +0.62 spread units47.4% of the line1 unit = 29.5 | A+favorable man/zone fit: zone-leaning receiver against this defense's coverage mix | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Cataurus Hicks: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 9 | Brody FoleyTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barLouisville vs Ole Miss · TE | Receiving Yards Over 15.5 | -1252 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.38 units above the line (+86% of the line). +0.38 spread units85.8% of the line1 unit = 35.3 | Cmildly unfavorable TE funnel vs Ole Miss | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Brody Foley: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 10 | Zach AtkinsTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barColorado vs Georgia Tech · TE | Receiving Yards Over 11.5 | -117sportsbook | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.26 units above the line (+56% of the line). +0.26 spread units55.7% of the line1 unit = 24.5 | Bmildly favorable TE funnel vs Georgia Tech | Activevendor labelNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Zach Atkins: availability active. basis vendor label. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 11 | Jayce BrownTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barLSU vs Clemson · WR | Receiving Yards Over 47.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.43 units above the line (+36% of the line). +0.43 spread units35.7% of the line1 unit = 39.6 | A+favorable slot funnel vs Clemson | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Jayce Brown: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 12 | Jayce BrownTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barLSU vs Clemson · WR | Receptions Over 3.5 | -102sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.40 units above the line (+29% of the line). +0.40 spread units28.9% of the line1 unit = 2.5 | A+favorable slot funnel vs Clemson | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Jayce Brown: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 13 | Colton JosephTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barWisconsin vs Notre Dame · QB | Rushing Yards Over 31.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +0.21 units above the line (+32% of the line). +0.21 spread units31.8% of the line1 unit = 46.9 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Colton Joseph: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 14 | Carlos HernandezTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barWake Forest vs Akron · WR | Receiving Yards Over 65.5 | -1132 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.30 units above the line (+18% of the line). +0.30 spread units18.0% of the line1 unit = 40.0 | Afavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Carlos Hernandez: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 15 | Dallas WilsonTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barFlorida vs Florida Atlantic · RB | Receiving Yards Over 40.5 | -1102 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.78 units above the line (+48% of the line). +0.78 spread units48.0% of the line1 unit = 24.9 | Bfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Dallas Wilson: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 16 | Ryan WingoTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barTexas vs Texas State · WR | Receiving Yards Over 48.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.32 units above the line (+27% of the line). +0.32 spread units27.2% of the line1 unit = 40.8 | Bfavorable man/zone fit: zone-leaning receiver against this defense's coverage mix | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Ryan Wingo: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 17 | Jaedn SkeeteTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barBoston College vs Cincinnati · WR | Receiving Yards Over 32.5 | -1172 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.48 units above the line (+45% of the line). +0.48 spread units45.4% of the line1 unit = 30.7 | Cunfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Jaedn Skeete: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 18 | Colton JosephTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barWisconsin vs Notre Dame · QB | Passing Yards Over 151.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +0.20 units above the line (+8% of the line). +0.20 spread units8.2% of the line1 unit = 61.2 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Colton Joseph: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 19 | Brian RoweTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUCLA vs California · WR | Receiving Yards Over 29.5 | -115sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.58 units above the line (+52% of the line). +0.58 spread units51.8% of the line1 unit = 26.4 | Cfavorable slot funnel vs California | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Brian Rowe: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 20 | Katin HouserTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barIllinois vs UAB · QB | Rushing Yards Over 15.5 | -1172 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire does not say OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.27 units above the line (+49% of the line). +0.27 spread units48.5% of the line1 unit = 28.2 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Katin Houser: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 21 | Conner WeigmanTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barHouston vs Oregon State · QB | Rushing Yards Over 42.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire does not say OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.27 units above the line (+29% of the line). +0.27 spread units29.3% of the line1 unit = 46.8 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Conner Weigman: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 22 | Abu SamaTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barWisconsin vs Notre Dame · RB | Rushing Yards Over 36.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.47 units above the line (+56% of the line). +0.47 spread units55.9% of the line1 unit = 43.2 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Abu Sama: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 23 | Patrick OvermyerTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barHouston vs Oregon State · TE | Receiving Yards Over 27.5 | -1123 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.39 units above the line (+40% of the line). +0.39 spread units39.9% of the line1 unit = 28.1 | Cmildly unfavorable TE funnel vs Oregon State | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Patrick Overmyer: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 24 | Kyri ShoelsTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUtah vs Idaho · WR | Receiving Yards Over 36.5 | -114sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.38 units above the line (+34% of the line). +0.38 spread units34.2% of the line1 unit = 33.1 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Kyri Shoels: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 25 | Gavin GroverTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barCincinnati vs Boston College · TE | Receiving Yards Over 13.5 | -108sportsbook | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +0.18 units above the line (+25% of the line). +0.18 spread units24.7% of the line1 unit = 18.3 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Gavin Grover: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 26 | Joseph WilliamsTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barColorado vs Georgia Tech · WR | Receiving Yards Over 35.5 | -1102 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +0.24 units above the line (+23% of the line). +0.24 spread units23.1% of the line1 unit = 33.9 | Cmildly unfavorable slot funnel vs Georgia Tech | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Joseph Williams: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 27 | Trequan JonesTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barTulsa vs Oklahoma State · RB | Rushing Yards Over 29.5 | -1172 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints does not say Over | Vendor projection +0.29 units above the line (+29% of the line). +0.29 spread units29.3% of the line1 unit = 30.3 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Trequan Jones: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 28 | Caden KnightenTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barBaylor vs Auburn · RB | Rushing Yards Over 29.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model says OverRotoWire does not say OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.18 units above the line (+20% of the line). +0.18 spread units20.3% of the line1 unit = 33.0 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Caden Knighten: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 29 | Isaiah SategnaTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barOklahoma vs UTEP · WR | Receiving Yards Over 57.5 | -1102 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.55 units above the line (+36% of the line). +0.55 spread units35.9% of the line1 unit = 37.6 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Isaiah Sategna: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 30 | Waymond JordanTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUSC vs Fresno State · RB | Rushing Yards Over 58.5 | -1142 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.41 units above the line (+31% of the line). +0.41 spread units31.3% of the line1 unit = 44.6 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Waymond Jordan: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 31 | Tre RichardsonTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barLouisville vs Ole Miss · WR | Receiving Yards Over 49.5 | -1142 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.43 units above the line (+37% of the line). +0.43 spread units37.3% of the line1 unit = 42.6 | CCAUTION: coverage-sensitive receiver leans man but the opponent leans the other way | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Tre Richardson: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 32 | Devon DampierTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUtah vs Idaho · QB | Passing Yards Over 198.5 | -114sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.52 units above the line (+21% of the line). +0.52 spread units20.9% of the line1 unit = 80.0 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Devon Dampier: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 33 | Chas NimrodTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barAuburn vs Baylor · WR | Receptions Over 2.5 | -1582 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.42 units above the line (+38% of the line). +0.42 spread units38.2% of the line1 unit = 2.3 | Cunfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Chas Nimrod: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 34 | Anthony WoodsTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUCLA vs California · RB | Rushing Yards Over 31.5 | -1152 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.71 units above the line (+59% of the line). +0.71 spread units59.4% of the line1 unit = 26.2 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Anthony Woods: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 35 | Adam MohammedTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barCalifornia vs UCLA · RB | Rushing Yards Over 56.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.30 units above the line (+24% of the line). +0.30 spread units23.7% of the line1 unit = 44.0 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Adam Mohammed: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 36 | Braden PeganTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barUtah vs Idaho · WR | Receiving Yards Over 49.5 | -114sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.32 units above the line (+28% of the line). +0.32 spread units28.0% of the line1 unit = 43.7 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Braden Pegan: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 37 | Isaac BrownTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barLouisville vs Ole Miss · RB | Rushing Yards Over 71.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.72 units above the line (+39% of the line). +0.72 spread units39.1% of the line1 unit = 38.7 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Isaac Brown: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 38 | Gideon DavidsonTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barClemson vs LSU · RB | Rushing Yards Over 41.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.78 units above the line (+52% of the line). +0.78 spread units52.2% of the line1 unit = 27.8 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Gideon Davidson: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 39 | Cam ColemanTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barTexas vs Texas State · WR | Receiving Yards Over 58.5 | -1143 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.38 units above the line (+25% of the line). +0.38 spread units25.3% of the line1 unit = 39.1 | Cunfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Cam Coleman: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 40 | Kamario TaylorTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barMississippi State vs UL Monroe · QB | Rushing Yards Over 54.5 | -1102 sportsbooks | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.28 units above the line (+24% of the line). +0.28 spread units23.9% of the line1 unit = 46.1 | UngradedScheme Score grades receiving yards and receptions only. | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Kamario Taylor: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. | |
| 41 | Charlie BeckerTierB: Cleared every gate, short of the Tier A barIndiana vs North Texas · WR | Receptions Over 3.5 | -152sportsbook | Model does not say OverRotoWire says OverFantasyPoints says Over | Vendor projection +0.31 units above the line (+22% of the line). +0.31 spread units21.6% of the line1 unit = 2.4 | Cunfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split | Activelisted, no designationNot an official team injury report. Unverified.Charlie Becker: availability active. basis listed, no designation. as of Sep 2, 2:14 PM PDT. Not an official team injury report. Unverified. |
Largest vendor gaps over the line
The propositions each vendor puts furthest above the posted line, before the board's own gates are applied. A row here has not been picked by the board unless its own column says it made the board. Not-yet-kicked propositions whose vendor projection sits above the posted line, ordered by that vendor's gap as a percent of the line. This is one vendor's opinion on its own, not the board's ranking: a row here has not passed the board's gates unless its own eligible flag says so.
| Player | Market | Line | RotoWire projection | Gap (spread units) | Gap (% of line) | On the board | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwan RaymondRutgers vs Massachusetts | Receiving Yards | 5.5 | 19.93 | +0.80 units | +262% | Yes, rank 7 | Thu Sep 3, 3:00 PM PT |
| Kam ShanksWake Forest vs Akron | Receiving Yards | 18.5 | 52.96 | +1.19 units | +186% | Yes, rank 6 | Thu Sep 3, 4:00 PM PT |
| Ryan WardWest Virginia vs Coastal Carolina | Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 22.44 | +0.37 units | +136% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 9:00 AM PT |
| Baylor HayesTulsa vs Oklahoma State | Rushing Yards | 8.5 | 19.87 | +0.32 units | +134% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 12:45 PM PT |
| Bo JacksonOhio State vs Ball State | Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 17.23 | +0.51 units | +130% | Yes, rank 3 | Sat Sep 5, 9:30 AM PT |
| Ty Clark IIIWake Forest vs Akron | Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 21.58 | +0.80 units | +127% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Thu Sep 3, 4:00 PM PT |
| Dylan RileyBoise State vs Oregon | Rushing Yards | 36.5 | 81.98 | +0.90 units | +125% | No: BLOWOUT_UNDERDOG | Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM PT |
| Broc LowryWestern Michigan vs Michigan | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | 63.2 | +0.46 units | +122% | No: BLOWOUT_UNDERDOG | Sat Sep 5, 4:30 PM PT |
| Tyler JohnsonEast Carolina vs Alabama | Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 38.41 | +0.67 units | +119% | No: NOT_PRICED_CANON:NO_PROJECTION_ROW;CF:MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 9:00 AM PT |
| Gavin GroverCincinnati vs Boston College | Receiving Yards | 13.5 | 28.88 | +0.18 units | +114% | Yes, rank 25 | Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM PT |
| Player | Market | Line | FantasyPoints projection | Gap (spread units) | Gap (% of line) | On the board | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Clark IIIWake Forest vs Akron | Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 23.8 | +0.80 units | +151% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Thu Sep 3, 4:00 PM PT |
| Antwan RaymondRutgers vs Massachusetts | Receiving Yards | 5.5 | 13.3 | +0.80 units | +142% | Yes, rank 7 | Thu Sep 3, 3:00 PM PT |
| Turbo RichardIndiana vs North Texas | Receiving Yards | 6.5 | 14.3 | +0.44 units | +120% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 9:00 AM PT |
| Tyler JohnsonEast Carolina vs Alabama | Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 38.5 | +0.67 units | +120% | No: NOT_PRICED_CANON:NO_PROJECTION_ROW;CF:MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 9:00 AM PT |
| Maurice TurnerTulane vs Duke | Rushing Yards | 30.5 | 65 | +0.39 units | +113% | No: NOT_PRICED_CANON:NO_PROJECTION_ROW;CF:MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM PT |
| Baylor HayesTulsa vs Oklahoma State | Rushing Yards | 8.5 | 18 | +0.32 units | +112% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 12:45 PM PT |
| Dylan RileyBoise State vs Oregon | Rushing Yards | 36.5 | 74.4 | +0.90 units | +104% | No: BLOWOUT_UNDERDOG | Sat Sep 5, 12:30 PM PT |
| Keith ReynoldsMiami (OH) vs Pittsburgh | Receiving Yards | 27.5 | 54.2 | +0.81 units | +97% | No: AVAILABILITY_QUESTIONABLE | Sat Sep 5, 9:30 AM PT |
| Josiah FreemanFresno State vs USC | Receiving Yards | 32.5 | 60.4 | +0.70 units | +86% | No: SCHEME_GRADE_D | Fri Sep 4, 6:00 PM PT |
| Dominic KnicelyCoastal Carolina vs West Virginia | Rushing Yards | 32.5 | 59.9 | +0.62 units | +84% | No: NOT_PRICED_MISSING_QUANTILE_CURVE | Sat Sep 5, 9:00 AM PT |
How a prop gets on this board
Every gate and every term of the score, stated by the ranking that produced the board. Nothing here is a weight this page invented.
The three votes
- There are 3 independent votes: model, rw, fp.
- The model votes Over when its own modelled Over probability beats the de-vigged book price by more than 0.03.
- RotoWire votes Over when RotoWire's projection clears the posted line by at least 0.25 spread units.
- FantasyPoints votes Over when FantasyPoints' projection clears the posted line by at least 0.25 spread units.
- One spread unit is the one-sigma-equivalent width of that row's own quantile curve, so a projection a fraction above a small line does not cast a free vote.
- RotoWire and FantasyPoints are two different companies and are read as two separate votes, never as one vendor with a fallback.
The gates
- The game has not kicked off, the player is not OUT or QUESTIONABLE, and at least one quantile artifact priced the market.
- At least two of the 3 independent votes say Over.
- On Receiving Yards, Receptions the role must be confirmed and the Scheme Score grade must not be D or F where a grade exists. The other markets carry no scheme gate.
- In a game with a spread of 21 or more the player must be on the favoured side with an implied team total of at least 30.
- A player with no usable history needs every one of the 3 votes.
The score
- Score = 0.5 x the primary edge + 0.3 x the vendor gap in model spread units (clamped to plus or minus 1.5 units and divided by that clamp), plus 0.02 when both quantile artifacts land on the same side of the book price, multiplied by the role confirmation weight on receiving markets, then plus the scheme term.
- One spread unit is the one-sigma-equivalent width of that row's own quantile curve, (q80 - q20) / 1.6832. Scoring the gap against the model's uncertainty rather than against the size of the line is what stops a tiny line with a large percentage gap from outranking a real disagreement on a big one.
- A vendor votes Over only when its projection clears the line by at least 0.25 spread units, so a projection a tenth of a yard above a small line does not cast a free vote.
- The scheme term is 0.15 x a signed unit read off the letter grade (A+ = +1, A = +1, B = +0.5, C = +0, D = -0.5, F = -1), plus 0.1 x the Scheme Score itself, clamped to plus or minus 0.1.
- Tier A is every vote, both quantile artifacts agreeing, and a Scheme Score grade of A, A+, B where a grade exists. A row the Scheme Score never graded can still reach Tier A and carries the NO_SCHEME_GRADE flag. Tier B is anything else that cleared every gate.
- The Scheme Score is a matchup grade whose forward predictiveness is unvalidated, which is why its whole contribution is bounded and sits next to an edge term worth several times more on a live row.
What the calibration says about this week
Every priced market (Passing Yards, Receiving Yards, Receptions, Rushing Yards) has a negative mean signed gap on both quantile artifacts: the model medians sit below the book line across each market, on the market-informed artifact and on the context-free artifact alike.
That means the Over pool is small and adversely selected. The rows that survive are the tail of a distribution that mostly points Under, so the Over list leans on vendor agreement rather than on the model alone.
Nothing here is a least-negative Under dressed up as an Over. A row only gets the model vote when its own modelled Over probability beats the de-vigged book price by more than 0.03, and a row with no model vote still needs both remaining votes, which means both vendors, to make the list.
Data still missing
Inputs this board would use and does not have. Each one names where it was looked for and what its absence costs.
Official Week 1 team injury reports or an inactives feed
The refreshed designations are a licensed vendor's depth-chart labels plus hand-reviewed news, not an official report. Most board rows read ACTIVE only because the depth chart lists the player and does not tag him, which is weaker than a designation and is flagged AVAILABILITY_NO_DESIGNATION rather than being promoted to a confirmed active.
Where it was looked for
model_outputs/v2/snapshots/availability (no snapshot written; analysis/availability.py has no entitled provider)model_outputs/v2/data/reviewed_availability_current/reviewed_availability.csv (source_tier is UNVERIFIED for every vendor row and HUMAN_CONFIRMED for the reviewed overrides; nothing reaches OFFICIAL_REPORT or VERIFIED_FEED)
Current-season (2026) routes and coverage data
No 2026 route/coverage data exists to refine Receiving Yards / Receptions role gating beyond the 2025 historical funnels.
Where it was looked for
projections/receiver_alignment_2025.csv (2025 only)projections/coverage_funnel_2025.csv (2025 only)projections/defender_responsibility_2025.csv (2025 only)
TE and RB receiving funnel files
No position-specific receiving funnel exists for TE/RB; only a WR-oriented receiver_alignment_2025.csv exists. Weakens role evidence for TE/RB receiving props.
Where it was looked for
projections/te_receiving_funnel_2025.csv (absent)projections/rb_receiving_funnel_2025.csv (absent)
A live requote of the Rutgers vs UMass props
Rutgers vs UMass is absent from The Odds API's player-prop feed entirely, so its 8 morning-board propositions have no second quote. Their lines are the 08:52 PT ones and nothing on disk can say whether they have moved since. Every other game the board covers is either requoted or explicitly outside the live feed's 16-event coverage.
Where it was looked for
model_outputs/v2/snapshots/odds/captures/2026_week1_oddsapi_props_20260902T210209Z/normalized.csv (16 events with props; event cfbd:401858423 is not among them)model_outputs/v2/snapshots/odds/captures/2026_week1_oddsapi_props_20260902T210209Z/manifest.json (88 of 88 requested events returned; the game is in the feed's slate, it simply carries no player props there)
Weather
No actual wind, precipitation, or temperature data exists anywhere on disk, only a manual review-status flag; environment features cannot include real weather.
Where it was looked for
analysis/props_day.py (only a weather_status string field, values UNKNOWN/REVIEWED/CONFIRMED)analysis/props_decision_report.py (same weather_status field, no wind/precip/temp values)analysis/game_context.py / game_context.csv (no weather columns)
Player-level snap and route projections for Week 1
Snap-share and route-participation projections would sharpen role_confirmation gating for Receiving Yards/Receptions; only the coarser scheme-frame role_confirmation_status exists.
Where it was looked for
model_outputs/v2/role_snapshots (directory exists, 0 files)analysis/role_snapshot.py (script exists; no Week 1 2026 output artifact on disk)
Market-aware Week 1 quantiles for the teams only the context-free artifact covers
The context-free artifact covers 138 teams and the served market-aware one covers 134, so 4 teams have only the no-market-feature view and their model_probs rely on p_over_cf alone with no market-informed cross-check. That gap was 44 teams before the 2026-09-02 market-aware rebuild; the predicate compares the two files' team counts on every run rather than quoting either number from memory.
Where it was looked for
projections/2026_wk1_quantiles.csv (market-informed and vendor-blended; betting_eligible False only on the vendor-only coverage-extension rows)projections/2026_wk1_quantiles_context_free.csv (138 teams, no market features, betting_eligible False)
Week 0 player-level results beyond the 8 games
No player-level Week 0 box scores exist to sanity-check early-season role/usage assumptions against actual 2026 snaps; only game-level margin accuracy is tracked.
Where it was looked for
/Users/zsoskin/outputs/cfb-rsw-2026/week0_model_check.csv (9 lines: 8 games, game-level margin/winner columns only, no player stat lines)
Team pace and plays projections
Play-volume projections would help scale rushing/receiving markets by expected team plays; only a total-points projection exists, not a plays-per-game estimate.
Where it was looked for
analysis/*.py and projections/* searched for pace/plays_proj file names (none found)projections/2026_box_scores.csv (has proj_game_total, win_prob, proj_margin; no plays or pace column)
Kicker or special teams data
Not needed: neither member of the Week 1 capture set posts a kicker or special-teams market.
Where it was looked for
not searched further
Move from a row to its source page
Every player on this board has a dossier, every matchup has a card, and the Scheme Score board carries the full matchup grade behind each letter.
Methodology and data boundary
Research only. This board ranks player-prop Over propositions by a published formula over model, RotoWire and FantasyPoints signals; it is not advice, it carries no stake sizing or bankroll guidance, and no wager is placed from it. Every price is a captured quote with its own as-of time, not a live one: re-check the line, the price and an official inactives list before acting on any row. Availability designations come from a licensed depth chart plus hand-reviewed news, never from an official team injury report. Prices are American odds for the Over side only, read off the capture named on each row, and a line move is measured within one operator: a different operator quoting a different number is disagreement, not movement, and is withheld as such. PFF metrics measure the 2025 season and are historical evidence, never a forecast and never model output.
- Board generated
- 2026-09-03T01:10:42Z
- Eligible propositions
- 41 (Tier A 5, Tier B 36)
- Projection artifact
- projections/2026_wk1_quantiles.csv
- Model feature set
- player-production-market-context-v2
- Market input snapshot
- eef1ca41d906...
- Training market generation
- 7e4ed6004d69...
- Forecast as of
- 2026-09-02T19:39:37Z
- Market context horizon
- t3h
- Blend input
- /Users/zsoskin/nbb-data/cfb/projections/2026_wk1_quantiles_market_20260902.csv
- Blend input sha256
- 43a73b0223e6...
- Scheme Score reasons
- scrubbed from context_features.csv