NFL Recommendations | Nothing But Bet

Rows: 298; 74 over, 78 under, 146 with no side
Facing a new coordinator: 130; Confirmed 2026 changes at 15 of 32 teams, as of 2026-09-01
Negative edges: 7; Out of 152 rows carrying a side
Probability step: 5.6 to 14.3 pp; A count over n games moves in steps of 100 over n; the shortest log here is 7 games

The edge column is not a second opinion

The board is ordered on edge by default, and that ordering has a property worth knowing before reading a single row. The side and the cover probability come out of the same projection: a projection above the line produces the over AND produces a cover probability above the market’s. So the two almost never disagree. Only 7 of the 152 rows carrying a side sit below the market at all. Ranking on this column is ranking on the projection-to-line gap with two extra steps in between, not weighing one signal against another.

Ordering on it concentrates one market

Of the top 20 sided rows in that order, 12 are Receptions. The engine names the cause itself and refuses to tune it out: on the smallest lines a projection assumes the receiver takes a normal share of his 2025 role, while the market is also pricing the chance a rotational player barely features. The market and the line sit next to the edge in every row so the pattern stays visible instead of being read as twelve separate findings.

At this sample size the number is coarse

A cover probability here is a count of games, so it can only land on multiples of one hundred over the number of games behind it. The shortest log on this board is 7 games, which answers in 14.3-point steps: a line sitting a hundredth of a yard either side of that receiver’s middle game moves his edge by a whole step. Every row prints its own step beside its edge for that reason, and 104 of the 297 priced rows differ from the market by less than one step of their own probability.

A wide edge and no recommendation is not a contradiction

9 rows carry an edge of twenty points or more and still publish no side. The two answer different questions. The side comes from whether the projection clears a band measured from how far the quoted lines spread, how far the receiver’s own weekly role moved, and how much of his offense’s script swing the posted line leaves open. The edge compares two probabilities. A projection can sit a hair outside a coin flip and still be inside a band that wide. Those rows are on their own tab rather than mixed into the ranking, because reading them in one list makes a measured silence look like a bug.

Every probability here is uncalibrated

This probability is empirical and uncalibrated. It counts one player's own prior-season games, rescaled to this fixture, and nothing here has been forward-scored against a result. A 60% is not a claim that six of ten rows like it land.

a scored forward test: these rows settled against results, week after week, and the published probabilities compared against how often they actually landed

The board

Scheme evidence is 2025 and the price is 2026; every row says so on itself. The 2026 week 1 injury report reaches 4 of 32 teams (LA, NE, SEA, SF) across 29 rows, so most of this board is still unreported: a player on any other team has no availability information here at all. No source on this desk publishes official inactives either, so even a covered player's status is a pre-kickoff report and not a ruling. A projection assumes the player takes the field; it is not evidence that he will.

Quarterbacks this week's capture did not mark active: Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), stated QUEST. That is the capture's own wording, not a reading of it, and it changes no number on this board.

Priced here and carrying a stated game status: Tory Horton (SEA), Questionable, hamstring. Priced here and did not practice: Tyler Higbee (LA), not injury related - resting player. The report reaches 4 of 32 teams, so a player on any other team is not covered either way.

MarketEvidence completenessDefense oppositeOrder

What this order is doing. Of the 20 rows at the top of it, 14 are Receptions. Across all 297 priced rows on screen, 66 sit below the market and 104 differ from it by less than one step of their own probability. 130 of 298 face a defense with a confirmed new coordinator.

298 rows, 2026 week 1 prices against 2025 evidence
Player	Market	Line	Side	Cover, this desk	Market, de-vigged	Edge	Cover, PFF	Evidence	Flags
Mack HollinsWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 2.32	Over	78.6%11 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	37.2%7.6 pp vig out	+41.4 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Sam LaPortaTE · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	3.5proj 6.98	Over	100%9 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	58.6%7.4 pp vig out	+41.4 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Luther BurdenWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 2.96	Under	86.7%2 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	45.8%6.4 pp vig out	+40.9 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Matthew GoldenWR · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 1.73	Under	92.3%1 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	52.8%7 pp vig out	+39.5 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 6.95	Over	88.2%15 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	48.9%6.7 pp vig out	+39.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	14.5proj 28.26	Over	88.9%8 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+38.8 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	37.3%	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Malik WashingtonWR · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	27.5proj 9.87	Under	88.2%2 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+38.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Charlie KolarTE · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 0.81	Under	80%2 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	41.7%6.6 pp vig out	+38.3 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
George KittleTE · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 5.83	Over	90.9%10 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	53.3%6.6 pp vig out	+37.6 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.01	No recommendationgap +0.51, band ±0.62	87.5%14 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+37.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jakobi MeyersWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	37.5proj 52.52	Over	87.5%14 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+37.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 0.76	Under	77.8%2 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	40.8%6.4 pp vig out	+37.0 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jahan DotsonWR · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 0.71	Under	76.9%3 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	41.5%7 pp vig out	+35.4 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashod BatemanWR · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	26.5proj 9.73	Under	84.6%2 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+34.5 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jauan JenningsWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 3.39	Over	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	39.8%6.8 pp vig out	+33.5 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	58.3%	medium	vendor disagreementnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mark AndrewsTE · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	34.5proj 23.05	Under	82.4%3 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+32.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Colston LovelandTE · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 2.88	Under	81.2%3 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.1%6.7 pp vig out	+32.1 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Josh DownsWR · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	44.5proj 29.74	Under	81.2%3 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.5%7.2 pp vig out	+31.7 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Puka NacuaWR · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	7.5proj 8.07	No recommendationgap +0.57, band ±1.54	75%12 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	43.7%6.5 pp vig out	+31.3 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	3.5proj 1.78	Under	85.7%2 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	55.5%7 pp vig out	+30.2 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jauan JenningsWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	22.5proj 35.59	Over	80%12 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+30.1 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Charlie KolarTE · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	17.5proj 13.61	Under	80%2 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+30.0 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	10.5proj 16.54	Over	80%12 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+30.0 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Terry McLaurinWR · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	3.5proj 2.58	Under	70%3 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	41.2%7 pp vig out	+28.8 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Bhayshul TutenRB · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	11.5proj 3.88	Under	77.8%2 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+27.9 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Devaughn VeleWR · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	39.5proj 10.27	Under	77.8%2 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+27.7 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
David MontgomeryRB · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	8.5proj 14.76	Over	78.6%11 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	+27.6 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Bucky IrvingRB · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	13.5proj 23.88	Over	77.8%7 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50.4%7 pp vig out	+27.4 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Terrance FergusonTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 0.77	Under	70%3 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	42.8%6.2 pp vig out	+27.2 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
George PickensWR · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	69.5proj 96.86	Over	76.5%13 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+26.5 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG vs DAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.2	Under	81.8%2 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	55.4%6.8 pp vig out	+26.4 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Christian McCaffreyRB · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	39.5proj 55.85	Over	76.5%13 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.2%7.4 pp vig out	+26.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyler HigbeeTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 3.07	Over	77.8%7 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	51.8%6.2 pp vig out	+26.0 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Derrick HenryRB · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	6.5proj 8.28	Over	75%9 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.4%7.8 pp vig out	+25.6 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	35%	medium	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Deebo SamuelWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 4.34	Over	81.3%13 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	55.8%6.3 pp vig out	+25.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Demarcus RobinsonWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.4	Over	61.5%8 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	36.2%7.8 pp vig out	+25.3 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Devaughn VeleWR · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 1.5	Under	77.8%2 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	52.6%6.4 pp vig out	+25.2 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dawson KnoxTE · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	14.5proj 19.01	No recommendationgap +4.51, band ±8.93	75%12 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+24.9 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael MayerTE · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.63	No recommendationgap +0.13, band ±0.88	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	39.1%6.6 pp vig out	+24.5 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	48.1%	medium	vendor disagreementnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Travis EtienneRB · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	3.5proj 2.31	Under	82.4%3 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	58.3%6.6 pp vig out	+24.1 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Alec PierceWR · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	46.5proj 75.76	Over	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+23.3 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Isaiah LikelyTE · NYG vs DAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	34.5proj 19.54	Under	72.7%3 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	49.4%7.8 pp vig out	+23.3 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyle JuszczykFB · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	5.5proj 10.67	Over	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+23.3 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	31.3%	medium	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Luther BurdenWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	56.5proj 35.35	Under	73.3%4 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+23.3 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	9.5proj 12.94	No recommendationgap +3.44, band ±3.57	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+23.2 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	33.6%	high	vendor disagreementnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.34	Under	68.7%5 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	46%6.5 pp vig out	+22.7 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mack HollinsWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	9.5proj 26.9	Over	71.4%10 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	49%6.9 pp vig out	+22.4 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tre' HarrisWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.86	Under	75%4 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	52.8%7 pp vig out	+22.2 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions8 sources	6.5proj 7.51	Over	70.6%12 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	48.6%6.9 pp vig out	+22.0 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Samaje PerineRB · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	6.5proj 7.86	No recommendationgap +1.36, band ±1.81	72.7%8 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	+21.7 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	31.7%	medium	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Chase BrownRB · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.59	No recommendationgap +0.09, band ±0.68	70.6%12 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.1%7.2 pp vig out	+21.5 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 5.92	No recommendationgap +1.42, band ±1.63	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	47.5%6.2 pp vig out	+21.3 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Brian ThomasWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	36.5proj 52.23	Over	71.4%10 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.3%7.2 pp vig out	+21.1 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Chase BrownRB · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	23.5proj 30.52	Over	70.6%12 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+20.6 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.66	No recommendationgap +0.16, band ±0.53	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	53.2%6.9 pp vig out	+20.1 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Hunter HenryTE · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards7 sources	33.5proj 45.99	Over	70.6%12 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.6%7.4 pp vig out	+20.0 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Nico CollinsWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	5.5proj 4.17	Under	73.3%4 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	53.8%6.7 pp vig out	+19.5 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	2.5proj 3.41	No recommendationgap +0.91, band ±0.94	75%9 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	55.5%6.6 pp vig out	+19.5 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	34.6%	medium	vendor disagreementnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
CeeDee LambWR · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	76.5proj 96.51	Over	69.2%9 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+19.3 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Demarcus RobinsonWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	11.5proj 23.68	Over	69.2%9 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+19.2 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Deebo SamuelWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	29.5proj 45.74	Over	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.7%6.3 pp vig out	+19.1 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	17.5proj 10.83	Under	69.2%4 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+19.1 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jahan DotsonWR · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	18.5proj 7.96	Under	69.2%4 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+19.1 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Matthew GoldenWR · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	39.5proj 12.4	Under	69.2%4 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+19.1 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Cole KmetTE · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	14.5proj 16.94	No recommendationgap +2.44, band ±3.77	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.3%7.2 pp vig out	+18.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	36.4%	high	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mason TaylorTE · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	19.5proj 20.74	No recommendationgap +1.24, band ±7.03	69.2%9 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.8%6.1 pp vig out	+18.4 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	35.1%	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tommy TrembleTE · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 0.88	Under	60%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	41.7%6.6 pp vig out	+18.3 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Brock BowersTE · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	63.5proj 47.15	Under	66.7%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	48.9%7.1 pp vig out	+17.8 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.01	Over	61.5%8 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	44%7.2 pp vig out	+17.5 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Bucky IrvingRB · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 4.4	Over	55.6%5 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	38.3%6.7 pp vig out	+17.3 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyren WilliamsRB · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.35	Over	73.3%11 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	56.3%6.5 pp vig out	+17.0 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Brenton StrangeTE · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	36.5proj 50.85	Over	66.7%8 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+16.8 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.52	Over	76.9%10 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	60.1%6.7 pp vig out	+16.8 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	47.2%	medium	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jalen CokerWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.96	Under	63.6%4 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	46.8%6.9 pp vig out	+16.8 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Chris GodwinWR · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	41.5proj 24.63	Under	66.7%3 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+16.7 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Greg DulcichTE · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	26.5proj 37.72	Over	66.7%6 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+16.7 pp± one step of 11.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kalif RaymondWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	16.5proj 12.64	Under	66.7%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+16.7 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tommy TrembleTE · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	15.5proj 5.86	Under	66.7%5 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+16.7 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jake FergusonTE · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 5.4	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	48.1%7 pp vig out	+16.6 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Trey McBrideTE · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	6.5proj 6.93	No recommendationgap +0.43, band ±0.93	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	42.5%7 pp vig out	+16.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashod BatemanWR · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	1.5proj 0.99	Under	53.8%6 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	37.9%7.3 pp vig out	+15.9 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	50.7%	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Khalil ShakirWR · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 5.29	Over	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	53.1%6.5 pp vig out	+15.7 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Isaac TeSlaaWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 0.99	Under	69.2%4 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	53.6%6.8 pp vig out	+15.6 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Samaje PerineRB · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 2	Over	54.5%6 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	39%6.9 pp vig out	+15.5 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Dalton SchultzTE · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	33.5proj 44.34	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.4%7 pp vig out	+15.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	14.5proj 9.36	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.7%6.8 pp vig out	+15.0 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	63.1%	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
DJ MooreWR · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	47.5proj 39.38	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+14.8 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Colby ParkinsonTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.63	No recommendationgap +0.13, band ±1.50	57.1%8 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	42.3%6.6 pp vig out	+14.8 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	36.5proj 40.5	No recommendationgap +4.00, band ±9.35	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Courtland SuttonWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	43.5proj 63.37	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Emeka EgbukaWR · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	53.5proj 36.06	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Justin JeffersonWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	74.5proj 59.59	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
RJ HarveyRB · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	16.5proj 22.94	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyler WarrenTE · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	46.5proj 34.49	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	81.5proj 89.98	No recommendationgap +8.48, band ±10.69	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.3 pp vig out	+14.6 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Zay FlowersWR · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	63.5proj 71.65	No recommendationgap +8.15, band ±16.63	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+14.6 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Mason TaylorTE · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.65	No recommendationgap +0.15, band ±0.90	61.5%8 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	46.9%6.5 pp vig out	+14.6 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	4.5proj 2.98	Under	60%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	45.4%6.9 pp vig out	+14.6 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Alec PierceWR · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.13	Over	60%9 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	45.5%6.7 pp vig out	+14.5 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
De'Von AchaneRB · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	4.5proj 5.12	No recommendationgap +0.62, band ±1.44	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	41.8%6.3 pp vig out	+14.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Davante AdamsWR · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	51.5proj 56.63	No recommendationgap +5.13, band ±6.55	64.3%9 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+14.4 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Travis KelceTE · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	3.5proj 4.07	No recommendationgap +0.57, band ±0.60	70.6%12 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56.2%6.2 pp vig out	+14.4 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jordan AddisonWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	42.5proj 33.46	Under	64.3%5 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+14.3 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mark AndrewsTE · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.12	Under	70.6%5 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56.3%6.5 pp vig out	+14.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Colby ParkinsonTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	19.5proj 28.73	No recommendationgap +9.23, band ±16.42	64.3%9 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.4%7.4 pp vig out	+13.9 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Aaron JonesRB · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	14.5proj 15.61	No recommendationgap +1.11, band ±3.15	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+13.6 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
George KittleTE · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	36.5proj 72.09	Over	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+13.5 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jalen CokerWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	39.5proj 44.73	No recommendationgap +5.23, band ±7.74	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+13.5 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	19.5proj 29.4	No recommendationgap +9.90, band ±10.81	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+13.5 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Rico DowdleRB · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.27	Over	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	55.4%6.8 pp vig out	+13.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Brian ThomasWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.73	No recommendationgap +0.23, band ±0.50	71.4%10 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	58.3%6.7 pp vig out	+13.1 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Hunter HenryTE · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	3.5proj 3.84	No recommendationgap +0.34, band ±0.62	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	39.8%6.8 pp vig out	+13.1 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Colston LovelandTE · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	51.5proj 36.76	Under	62.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.5%5.9 pp vig out	+13.0 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Aaron JonesRB · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 3.26	Over	63.6%7 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50.8%6.5 pp vig out	+12.8 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions8 sources	2.5proj 3.09	No recommendationgap +0.59, band ±0.61	61.1%11 of 18 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.6 pp	48.4%6.4 pp vig out	+12.7 pp± one step of 5.6 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Chris OlaveWR · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	76.5proj 59.27	Under	62.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+12.6 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mike EvansWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	49.5proj 33.19	Under	62.5%3 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+12.6 pp± one step of 12.5 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Puka NacuaWR · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	90.5proj 102.7	No recommendationgap +12.20, band ±19.61	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+12.6 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	53.5proj 62.83	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+12.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Justice HillRB · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	11.5proj 13.8	No recommendationgap +2.30, band ±5.04	62.5%5 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+12.5 pp± one step of 12.5 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tre' HarrisWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	26.5proj 18.65	Under	62.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+12.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	42.5proj 53.42	No recommendationgap +10.92, band ±14.72	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+12.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dawson KnoxTE · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 1.85	No recommendationgap +0.35, band ±0.87	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+12.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Cam SkatteboRB · NYG vs DAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	15.5proj 18.86	Over	62.5%5 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+12.4 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	85.5proj 117.79	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+12.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Romeo DoubsWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	35.5proj 52.56	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+12.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	6.5proj 8.04	No recommendationgap +1.54, band ±1.61	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+12.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Ja'Marr ChaseWR · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	7.5proj 7.66	No recommendationgap +0.16, band ±1.13	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	44%5.7 pp vig out	+12.3 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	27.5proj 21.3	Under	61.5%5 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	49.4%7.8 pp vig out	+12.1 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	63.4%	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaylen WaddleWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 6.06	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.8%7.4 pp vig out	+11.7 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Justice HillRB · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	2.5proj 2.37	No recommendationgap -0.13, band ±0.87	50%4 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	38.3%7 pp vig out	+11.7 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jordan AddisonWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.45	Under	64.3%5 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	52.7%7.3 pp vig out	+11.6 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Cade OttonTE · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	3.5proj 3.78	No recommendationgap +0.28, band ±0.73	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	41.8%6.9 pp vig out	+11.5 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Dalton SchultzTE · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.84	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	53.2%6.9 pp vig out	+11.5 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kendrick BourneWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	18.5proj 25.86	Over	61.5%8 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+11.4 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Courtland SuttonWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.74	No recommendationgap +0.24, band ±0.59	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	41.7%6.7 pp vig out	+11.2 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jonathan TaylorRB · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 3.21	Over	68.8%11 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	57.7%6.6 pp vig out	+11.1 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashee RiceWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	5.5proj 6.42	No recommendationgap +0.92, band ±0.95	62.5%5 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	51.4%6.9 pp vig out	+11.1 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Josh DownsWR · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 3.52	Under	68.7%5 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	58%6.2 pp vig out	+10.7 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kenny GainwellHB · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	3.5proj 4.26	No recommendationgap +0.76, band ±1.25	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	42.4%6.6 pp vig out	+10.5 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael PittmanWR · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	4.5proj 5.2	Over	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	42.5%7 pp vig out	+10.4 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Christian WatsonWR · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	55.5proj 44.72	Under	60%4 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	49.7%7.2 pp vig out	+10.3 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
DeVonta SmithWR · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	5.5proj 4.21	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	54.4%6.3 pp vig out	+10.3 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Cooper KuppWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	2.5proj 1.94	Under	56.2%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	46%6.5 pp vig out	+10.2 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tee HigginsWR · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	61.5proj 69.59	No recommendationgap +8.09, band ±14.23	60%9 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+10.0 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Pat BryantWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.66	Under	66.7%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	56.7%6.4 pp vig out	+10.0 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jerry JeudyWR · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	30.5proj 20.02	Under	58.8%7 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.7%7.2 pp vig out	+9.1 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
J.K. DobbinsRB · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	3.5proj 7.36	Over	60%6 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	+9.0 pp± one step of 10 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Evan EngramTE · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 3.5	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	53.5%7.6 pp vig out	+9.0 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jameson WilliamsWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	58.5proj 67.89	No recommendationgap +9.39, band ±11.31	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+8.9 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Trey McBrideTE · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	56.5proj 62.6	No recommendationgap +6.10, band ±8.40	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+8.9 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
RJ HarveyRB · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 3.72	Over	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+8.9 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier WorthyWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.01	Under	64.3%5 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	55.4%6.8 pp vig out	+8.9 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Elijah ArroyoTE · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	7.5proj 5.49	Under	58.3%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.5%7.2 pp vig out	+8.8 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jake FergusonTE · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	29.5proj 36.82	Over	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+8.8 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyjae SpearsRB · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	18.5proj 21.08	No recommendationgap +2.58, band ±5.81	58.3%7 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.5%5.9 pp vig out	+8.8 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	32.4%	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	25.5proj 28.65	No recommendationgap +3.15, band ±4.01	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+8.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Drake LondonWR · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	64.5proj 48.76	Under	58.3%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+8.4 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Marvin HarrisonWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	4.5proj 2.77	Under	66.7%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	58.3%6.7 pp vig out	+8.4 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyle PittsTE · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.71	No recommendationgap +0.21, band ±0.90	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	44.9%6 pp vig out	+8.0 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mike EvansWR · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.3	No recommendationgap +0.80, band ±0.92	62.5%5 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	54.5%7.1 pp vig out	+8.0 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tony PollardRB · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.2	Over	60%9 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	52%6.8 pp vig out	+8.0 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	39.4%	high	vendor disagreementnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 1.59	No recommendationgap +0.09, band ±0.58	54.5%6 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	46.6%7.3 pp vig out	+7.9 pp± one step of 9.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
James CookRB · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.63	No recommendationgap +0.13, band ±0.40	50%7 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	42.3%5.4 pp vig out	+7.7 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tre TuckerWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.06	Under	58.8%7 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	51.1%7.1 pp vig out	+7.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rhamondre StevensonRB · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	24.5proj 17.02	Under	57.1%6 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	49.7%7.6 pp vig out	+7.4 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	63.7%	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Bijan RobinsonRB · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.72	No recommendationgap +0.22, band ±1.09	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	45.5%7.1 pp vig out	+7.4 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	61.5proj 62.81	No recommendationgap +1.31, band ±21.29	57.1%4 of 7 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 14.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+7.2 pp± one step of 14.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
George PickensWR · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions3 sources	4.5proj 5.55	Over	64.7%11 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	57.5%6.8 pp vig out	+7.2 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	24.5proj 25.55	No recommendationgap +1.05, band ±4.91	57.1%8 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+7.0 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dallas GoedertTE · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.97	Under	60%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	53.1%6.5 pp vig out	+6.9 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Khalil ShakirWR · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	36.5proj 44.43	No recommendationgap +7.93, band ±10.43	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+6.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Rico DowdleRB · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	10.5proj 12.51	No recommendationgap +2.01, band ±2.46	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+6.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	low	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
De'Von AchaneRB · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	27.5proj 32.18	No recommendationgap +4.68, band ±9.03	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+6.3 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Evan EngramTE · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	22.5proj 28.8	Over	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+6.2 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tyler WarrenTE · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 3.75	Under	52.9%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	46.9%6.5 pp vig out	+6.0 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Gunnar HelmTE · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.9	Under	56.2%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.4%7.4 pp vig out	+5.8 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jonathan TaylorRB · IND vs BAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	16.5proj 18.66	Over	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.6%7 pp vig out	+5.7 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
AJ BarnerTE · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	2.5proj 2.94	Over	62.5%10 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	56.9%6.9 pp vig out	+5.6 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Greg DulcichTE · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.7	No recommendationgap +0.20, band ±0.62	55.6%5 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+5.6 pp± one step of 11.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kalif RaymondWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	1.5proj 1.6	No recommendationgap +0.10, band ±0.28	58.3%7 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	52.7%7.3 pp vig out	+5.6 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier LegetteWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 1.93	Under	66.7%5 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	61.1%7.2 pp vig out	+5.6 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Sam LaPortaTE · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	41.5proj 55.35	Over	55.6%5 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+5.5 pp± one step of 11.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Adam TrautmanTE · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	8.5proj 9.17	No recommendationgap +0.67, band ±2.14	54.5%6 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	49.2%6.5 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 9.1 ppsmaller than one step	34.7%	low	vendor disagreementlean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jalen NailorWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	20.5proj 28.92	Over	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Omarion HamptonRB · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	12.5proj 13.82	No recommendationgap +1.32, band ±5.92	55.6%5 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	50.3%7.2 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 11.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
DJ MooreWR · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.94	Under	52.9%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	47.6%6.1 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Kayshon BoutteWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 1.96	Over	64.3%9 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	59%6.6 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rachaad WhiteRB · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.67	Under	64.7%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	59.4%7.1 pp vig out	+5.3 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
DeMario DouglasWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 1.7	No recommendationgap +0.20, band ±0.50	66.7%10 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	61.6%7.7 pp vig out	+5.1 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 2.52	Over	58.3%7 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	53.6%7.8 pp vig out	+4.7 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael MayerTE · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	17.5proj 19.83	No recommendationgap +2.33, band ±6.61	54.5%6 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+4.5 pp± one step of 9.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kenneth WalkerRB · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.04	Under	50%8 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	45.6%6.9 pp vig out	+4.4 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael WilsonWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.74	Under	52.9%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	48.6%6.9 pp vig out	+4.3 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dallas GoedertTE · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	35.5proj 37.29	No recommendationgap +1.79, band ±5.46	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.3%6.3 pp vig out	+4.0 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Calvin RidleyWR · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 1.94	No recommendationgap -0.56, band ±0.82	42.9%3 of 7 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 14.3 pp	38.9%7.2 pp vig out	+4.0 pp± one step of 14.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Quentin JohnstonWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	42.5proj 52.74	Over	53.8%7 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.9 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Juwan JohnsonTE · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	4.5proj 4.14	No recommendationgap -0.36, band ±0.87	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	43.3%6.4 pp vig out	+3.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Noah GrayTE · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	9.5proj 10.24	No recommendationgap +0.74, band ±2.05	53.8%7 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+3.7 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	15.5proj 12.03	Under	53.3%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.6%7 pp vig out	+3.7 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
DK MetcalfWR · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	48.5proj 51.99	No recommendationgap +3.49, band ±6.30	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.4 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Pat FreiermuthTE · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	25.5proj 25.81	No recommendationgap +0.31, band ±5.16	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.4 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier LegetteWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	18.5proj 20.13	No recommendationgap +1.63, band ±4.06	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.4 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
DeMario DouglasWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	20.5proj 24.4	Over	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+3.3 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Woody MarksRB · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	9.5proj 10.76	No recommendationgap +1.26, band ±2.05	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	+3.3 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	33.1%	low	vendor disagreementnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rome OdunzeWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 2.82	Under	58.3%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	55.1%6 pp vig out	+3.2 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Brenton StrangeTE · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.58	No recommendationgap +0.08, band ±0.50	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	46.9%6.5 pp vig out	+3.1 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dalton KincaidTE · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.62	No recommendationgap +0.12, band ±0.73	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	46.9%6.5 pp vig out	+3.1 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Juwan JohnsonTE · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	42.5proj 45.16	No recommendationgap +2.66, band ±9.47	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.0 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyle PittsTE · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	43.5proj 55.22	Over	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.0 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	58.5proj 70.78	Over	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+3.0 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael PittmanWR · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	39.5proj 41.35	No recommendationgap +1.85, band ±3.77	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	+2.9 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	30.5proj 30.8	No recommendationgap +0.30, band ±10.27	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+2.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Travis KelceTE · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	41.5proj 42.28	No recommendationgap +0.78, band ±6.28	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	+2.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jameson WilliamsWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	3.5proj 4.65	Over	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56%6.6 pp vig out	+2.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Zay FlowersWR · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	4.5proj 5.01	No recommendationgap +0.51, band ±1.16	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56%6.6 pp vig out	+2.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
A.J. BrownWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	64.5proj 70.03	No recommendationgap +5.53, band ±10.61	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50.7%7.6 pp vig out	+2.6 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Parker WashingtonWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	53.5proj 54.72	No recommendationgap +1.22, band ±11.79	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50.9%7.2 pp vig out	+2.4 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Omarion HamptonRB · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.29	No recommendationgap -0.21, band ±0.98	44.4%4 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	42%6.2 pp vig out	+2.4 pp± one step of 11.1 ppsmaller than one step	54%	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Kenny GainwellHB · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	20.5proj 26.67	No recommendationgap +6.17, band ±7.84	52.9%9 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.6%6.1 pp vig out	+2.3 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Cole KmetTE · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 2.16	Over	56.3%9 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	54.1%6.2 pp vig out	+2.2 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	39.9%	high	vendor disagreementavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Malik WashingtonWR · MIA at LV2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.98	No recommendationgap +0.48, band ±0.50	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	57%6.7 pp vig out	+1.8 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Derrick HenryRB · BAL at IND2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions2 sources	1.5proj 0.96	Under	66.7%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	65.8%7.4 pp vig out	+0.9 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
A.J. BrownWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	5.5proj 5.29	No recommendationgap -0.20, band ±0.80	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	46%6 pp vig out	+0.7 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dalton KincaidTE · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	38.5proj 38.99	No recommendationgap +0.49, band ±7.92	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.7%7.2 pp vig out	+0.3 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Marvin HarrisonWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	48.5proj 50.32	No recommendationgap +1.82, band ±11.18	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.7%7.2 pp vig out	+0.3 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Mike GesickiTE · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	20.5proj 19.5	No recommendationgap -1.00, band ±4.02	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.9%6.3 pp vig out	+0.1 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashee RiceWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	59.5proj 54.03	No recommendationgap -5.47, band ±8.02	50%4 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	+0.1 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Harold FanninTE · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	33.5proj 33.23	No recommendationgap -0.27, band ±8.31	50%8 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	0.0 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tucker KraftTE · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	45.5proj 41.36	No recommendationgap -4.14, band ±5.27	50%4 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	0.0 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
DK MetcalfWR · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 4.28	Over	53.3%8 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	53.3%6 pp vig out	0.0 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	15.5proj 18.26	Over	50%7 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	-0.1 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Rome OdunzeWR · CHI at CAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	43.5proj 45.35	No recommendationgap +1.85, band ±7.17	50%6 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	-0.1 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Terrance FergusonTE · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	24.5proj 24.28	No recommendationgap -0.22, band ±8.98	50%5 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	50.2%6.1 pp vig out	-0.2 pp± one step of 10 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
James CookRB · BUF at HOU2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	14.5proj 13.8	No recommendationgap -0.70, band ±2.08	50%7 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.4%6.1 pp vig out	-0.4 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jerry JeudyWR · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.52	No recommendationgap +0.02, band ±0.50	58.8%10 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	59.2%6.4 pp vig out	-0.4 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	45.9%	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier WorthyWR · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	37.5proj 36.98	No recommendationgap -0.52, band ±5.49	50%7 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.5%7.2 pp vig out	-0.5 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Romeo DoubsWR · NE at SEA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions8 sources	3.5proj 3.32	No recommendationgap -0.18, band ±0.67	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	44.3%6 pp vig out	-0.5 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Saquon BarkleyRB · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.45	No recommendationgap -0.05, band ±0.50	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	47.4%6.4 pp vig out	-0.7 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kenneth WalkerRB · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	15.5proj 15.67	No recommendationgap +0.17, band ±3.26	50%8 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	-1.0 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	2.5proj 1.79	Under	60%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	61.1%7.2 pp vig out	-1.1 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
David MontgomeryRB · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 1.48	No recommendationgap -0.02, band ±0.51	50%7 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	51.4%6.9 pp vig out	-1.4 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jahmyr GibbsRB · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	4.5proj 3.64	No recommendationgap -0.86, band ±1.22	41.2%7 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	42.8%6.2 pp vig out	-1.6 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions3 sources	1.5proj 2.31	Over	60%9 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	61.9%5.8 pp vig out	-1.9 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Parker WashingtonWR · JAX vs CLE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	4.5proj 3.92	No recommendationgap -0.58, band ±0.84	40%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	42.2%6.4 pp vig out	-2.2 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Michael WilsonWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	41.5proj 40.18	No recommendationgap -1.32, band ±8.37	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-2.9 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tre TuckerWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	40.5proj 36.04	No recommendationgap -4.46, band ±5.15	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-2.9 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Xavier HutchinsonWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	18.5proj 15.77	No recommendationgap -2.73, band ±4.46	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.6%7 pp vig out	-2.9 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Chris OlaveWR · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	6.5proj 6.16	No recommendationgap -0.34, band ±1.11	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	46.7%6.6 pp vig out	-2.9 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Cade OttonTE · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	28.5proj 26.48	No recommendationgap -2.02, band ±5.13	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-3.2 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
T.J. HockensonTE · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	27.5proj 24.3	No recommendationgap -3.20, band ±4.91	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-3.2 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Breece HallRB · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	19.5proj 15.92	No recommendationgap -3.58, band ±5.40	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-3.3 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Javonte WilliamsRB · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	9.5proj 8.98	No recommendationgap -0.52, band ±1.76	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	-3.3 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
T.J. HockensonTE · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.38	No recommendationgap -0.12, band ±0.68	46.7%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-3.3 pp± one step of 6.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Travis EtienneRB · NO at DET2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	17.5proj 15.93	No recommendationgap -1.57, band ±3.48	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	51%6.9 pp vig out	-3.9 pp± one step of 5.9 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jack BechWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards6 sources	15.5proj 14.07	No recommendationgap -1.43, band ±4.84	45.5%5 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	49.6%7 pp vig out	-4.1 pp± one step of 9.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Harold FanninTE · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	4.5proj 3.68	No recommendationgap -0.81, band ±0.92	37.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	41.6%6.9 pp vig out	-4.1 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Darnell WashingtonTE · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	16.5proj 16.43	No recommendationgap -0.07, band ±4.62	46.2%6 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	50.6%7.8 pp vig out	-4.4 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Davante AdamsWR · LAR vs SF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.36	No recommendationgap -0.14, band ±0.51	42.9%6 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	47.6%6.7 pp vig out	-4.7 pp± one step of 7.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
CeeDee LambWR · DAL at NYG2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	6.5proj 6.42	No recommendationgap -0.08, band ±0.66	38.5%5 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	43.5%6.8 pp vig out	-5.0 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Noah GrayTE · KC vs DEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 0.86	Under	53.8%6 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	59.4%7.1 pp vig out	-5.6 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jalen NailorWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 1.49	Under	56.2%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	62%7.5 pp vig out	-5.8 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
AJ BarnerTE · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	24.5proj 22.62	No recommendationgap -1.88, band ±2.69	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%6.1 pp vig out	-6.2 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	51.5proj 47.43	No recommendationgap -4.07, band ±7.37	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-6.2 pp± one step of 6.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET vs NO2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	77.5proj 69.41	No recommendationgap -8.09, band ±13.94	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	-6.3 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Cooper KuppWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	29.5proj 27.15	No recommendationgap -2.35, band ±3.65	43.8%7 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	50.2%6.5 pp vig out	-6.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kendrick BourneWR · ARI at LAC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.68	Under	53.8%6 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	60.2%6.8 pp vig out	-6.4 pp± one step of 7.7 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Calvin RidleyWR · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	27.5proj 26.99	No recommendationgap -0.51, band ±11.38	42.9%3 of 7 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 14.3 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	-7.1 pp± one step of 14.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Cam SkatteboRB · NYG vs DAL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.46	No recommendationgap -0.04, band ±0.41	37.5%3 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	44.6%6.8 pp vig out	-7.1 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jaylen WarrenRB · PIT vs ATL2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.47	No recommendationgap -0.03, band ±0.30	42.9%6 of 14 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.1 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	-7.2 pp± one step of 7.1 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Quinshon JudkinsRB · CLE at JAX2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	9.5proj 9.01	No recommendationgap -0.49, band ±1.33	41.7%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-8.2 pp± one step of 8.3 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Pat BryantWR · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	23.5proj 22.63	No recommendationgap -0.87, band ±4.16	41.7%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	-8.3 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Tucker KraftTE · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions3 sources	3.5proj 3.52	No recommendationgap +0.02, band ±0.50	50%4 of 8 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 12.5 pp	58.6%6 pp vig out	-8.6 pp± one step of 12.5 ppsmaller than one step	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Mike GesickiTE · CIN vs TB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.18	No recommendationgap -0.32, band ±0.45	33.3%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	42%6.7 pp vig out	-8.7 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Stefon DiggsWR · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	40.5proj 37.6	No recommendationgap -2.90, band ±7.69	41.2%7 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-8.8 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Tetairoa McMillanWR · CAR vs CHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.16	No recommendationgap -0.34, band ±0.64	41.2%7 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50.1%6.8 pp vig out	-8.9 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Stefon DiggsWR · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	3.5proj 3.16	No recommendationgap -0.34, band ±0.65	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56.2%6.2 pp vig out	-9.1 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	low	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Drake LondonWR · ATL at PIT2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	5.5proj 4.8	No recommendationgap -0.70, band ±0.92	41.7%5 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	51.1%6.7 pp vig out	-9.4 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Terry McLaurinWR · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards2 sources	50.5proj 47.2	No recommendationgap -3.30, band ±8.60	40%4 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	49.7%7.6 pp vig out	-9.7 pp± one step of 10 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Chig OkonkwoTE · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 2.38	No recommendationgap -0.12, band ±0.33	47.1%8 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	57%6.7 pp vig out	-9.9 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new teamavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Nico CollinsWR · HOU vs BUF2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	69.5proj 63.77	No recommendationgap -5.73, band ±12.15	40%6 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	50.2%6.5 pp vig out	-10.2 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Ladd McConkeyWR · LAC vs ARI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	4.5proj 4.17	No recommendationgap -0.33, band ±0.65	37.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	48%6.8 pp vig out	-10.5 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Chris GodwinWR · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	3.5proj 2.97	No recommendationgap -0.53, band ±0.72	44.4%4 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	55%6.4 pp vig out	-10.6 pp± one step of 11.1 ppsmaller than one step	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Rashid ShaheedWR · SEA vs NE2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards5 sources	31.5proj 27.3	No recommendationgap -4.20, band ±5.43	38.9%7 of 18 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.6 pp	50%6.1 pp vig out	-11.1 pp± one step of 5.6 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Kyle JuszczykFB · SF at LAR2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions3 sources	1.5proj 1.09	Under	53.3%7 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	64.4%6.4 pp vig out	-11.1 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Gunnar HelmTE · TEN vs NYJ2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	22.5proj 18.21	No recommendationgap -4.29, band ±5.31	37.5%6 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-12.4 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
DeVonta SmithWR · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards4 sources	66.5proj 58.19	No recommendationgap -8.31, band ±9.09	35.3%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	50%6.5 pp vig out	-14.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Adam TrautmanTE · DEN at KC2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	1.5proj 1.23	No recommendationgap -0.27, band ±0.50	18.2%2 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	33.2%8.1 pp vig out	-15.0 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	low	lean conflictavailability unreporteduncalibrated
Emeka EgbukaWR · TB at CIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions7 sources	4.5proj 4.14	No recommendationgap -0.36, band ±0.97	23.5%4 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	41.6%6.9 pp vig out	-18.1 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Adonai MitchellWR · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards3 sources	32.5proj 18.77	No recommendationgap -13.73, band ±15.46	31.3%5 of 16 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-18.6 pp± one step of 6.3 pp	none published	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Justin JeffersonWR · MIN vs GB2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	5.5proj 5.03	No recommendationgap -0.47, band ±1.02	35.3%6 of 17 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 5.9 pp	56%5.7 pp vig out	-20.7 pp± one step of 5.9 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Garrett WilsonWR · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	5.5proj 5.03	No recommendationgap -0.47, band ±1.71	28.6%2 of 7 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 14.3 pp	49.9%6.8 pp vig out	-21.3 pp± one step of 14.3 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Breece HallRB · NYJ at TEN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	2.5proj 1.99	No recommendationgap -0.51, band ±0.68	26.7%4 of 15 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 6.7 pp	48.7%6.7 pp vig out	-22.0 pp± one step of 6.7 pp	none published	high	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Brock BowersTE · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions4 sources	5.5proj 4.84	No recommendationgap -0.66, band ±0.93	33.3%4 of 12 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 8.3 pp	55.9%6.8 pp vig out	-22.6 pp± one step of 8.3 pp	none published	low	lean conflictnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Dontayvion WicksWR · PHI vs WAS2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions5 sources	2.5proj 2.01	No recommendationgap -0.49, band ±0.50	23.1%3 of 13 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 7.7 pp	49.8%6.5 pp vig out	-26.7 pp± one step of 7.7 pp	36.1%	medium	new teamnew coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Jack BechWR · LV vs MIA2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions6 sources	1.5proj 1.31	No recommendationgap -0.19, band ±0.45	18.2%2 of 11 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 9.1 pp	50%7 pp vig out	-31.8 pp± one step of 9.1 pp	none published	medium	new coordinatoravailability unreporteduncalibrated
Christian WatsonWR · GB at MIN2025 evidence, 2026 price	Receptions3 sources	3.5proj 3.3	No recommendationgap -0.20, band ±0.50	20%2 of 10 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 10 pp	58.6%6 pp vig out	-38.6 pp± one step of 10 pp	none published	medium	availability unreporteduncalibrated
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB · WAS at PHI2025 evidence, 2026 price	Rec Yards1 sources	9.5proj 3.83	Under	88.9%1 of 9 gamesuncalibrated, steps of 11.1 pp	no two-way price	unpriced	none published	low	availability unreporteduncalibrated

The flags on those rows

Every flag on this board is built by lib/nfl/flags.js and is the same condition, worded the same way, on every surface of this site that renders it. A flag reports a measurement; none of them tells a reader what to do. Thin sample sorts ahead of everything else, because nothing else on a row is worth reading until it is settled.

What each flag means, and how many rows carry it
Flag	Severity	Rows	Fires when	Built from
vendor disagreement	strong	13	this desk's cover probability and a vendor's differ by 15 points or more	recommendations vs pff_matchups
lean conflict	caution	30	two vendors put a receiver's man/zone lean opposite ways	receiver evidence, both vendors
new team	caution	50	the player changed teams for 2026, so his prior usage was earned elsewhere	scheme_scores.team_changed
new coordinator	caution	130	the defense opposite changed coordinators for 2026	scheme_scores.opponent_dc_changed
availability unreported	caution	298	the player's team filed no 2026 practice report	the 2 of 32 teams that did
uncalibrated	info	298	always, on any row carrying a probability	standing caveat

Method

stated, not measured

environment index elasticity = 0.5

Points are not plays. An offense implied for a quarter more points does not run a quarter more snaps: some of a scoring expectation arrives as yards per play, and some of it arrives as script, which this chain already carries separately. A half-power index concedes that without claiming to know the split.

a 2025 team-level points-and-plays table, which this desk does not hold; the elasticity would then be measured across 32 teams rather than stated here

stated, not measured

vendor disagreement threshold = 15

The point past which two independent estimates of the same probability are reported as a disagreement rather than as noise. It is a reporting threshold and it changes no number.

a scored history of how far the two vendors usually sit apart on rows that were later settled

How a side is decided

The band is the widest of three measured widths: how far the quoted lines spread across sources, how much of the offense own leading-to-trailing swing the posted line leaves open, and how far the receiver own weekly route count moved through the middle half of his 2025 season. The script width used to be the full swing on every row because direction was unknown; it is now the full swing times the share the market leaves open, which is 1 at a pick and small on a heavy favourite. It never reaches zero, because a posted line is a price rather than a result. A projection inside the band publishes no recommendation.

How a probability is counted

cover_probability is a count, not a model. Every game in the receiver 2025 log is multiplied by this fixture projection over his own 2025 middle game, and the share of those rescaled games that clear the line is the number. No distribution shape is assumed, because the distribution is his. The count of games behind it is published on every row, always. market_implied is the same probability read off the two posted prices with the vig normalised out, and the raw pair, their sum and the vig removed are all published so the removal can be checked. Both numbers are stated for the same named side of the same line. Because it is a count, its resolution is 100 over the number of games behind it: a 7-game log answers in 14.3-point steps, and a line sitting a hair either side of his middle game moves the row by a whole step. That resolution is published on every row rather than smoothed, because smoothing it would mean assuming a shape for his distribution, which is the one thing this measure exists to avoid. It is also the strongest reason edge_pp is a ranking and not a wager.

What the edge is, and is not

edge_pp is one probability minus another, in percentage points. It is not an expected value, it carries no price paid on a winning side, and it is not a stake size. Ranking on it ranks how far this desk sits from the market, nothing more.

With those corrections in place the board still leans over among the smallest lines, and the reason is named rather than tuned out: a projection here assumes a receiver takes a normal share of the role his 2025 log describes, and the market is also pricing the chance that a rotational player barely features. This desk holds no availability and no depth information for that, so the lean is left visible on the lowest lines instead of being fitted away against the market it is supposed to be measuring.

Where the game lines enter

The week posted lines enter this chain twice and nowhere else. The implied team total, indexed against the mean implied team total across all 32 sides of the same feed and dampened by a stated elasticity, scales the play count. The spread sign names which offense is the one expected to be chasing, and the de-vigged moneyline says how sure that is; direction times the run-pass report own measured leading-versus-trailing swing, bounded by the share of snaps that offense actually spent in the opposite state, moves the pass rate. Whatever share of the swing the market leaves open stays in the band. No new swing is modelled here: the swing is the measured one and the lines only decide where inside it this fixture sits.

What this board does not publish

expected value
stake size
units
bankroll advice
sportsbook operator names
a calibrated probability
a forward-scored probability

Every recommendation on this board pairs a 2026 price with 2025 evidence, and each row says so on itself rather than in a footer. The prices were captured on 2026-09-09 before kickoff, to the day and not to a clock time, from a multi-source grid whose operator names are deliberately withheld; how many independent sources stood behind a line is published instead. The week posted spreads, totals and moneylines are read, so this board now says which offense the market expects to be throwing from behind rather than declining to. Everything else -- route share, coverage rates, man and zone splits, target depth, defender quality -- is the 2025 season, because no 2026 regular-season snap has been played. A side is published only when the projection sits outside a band this desk can measure; inside it the answer is no recommendation, and that is a finding rather than a gap. The cover probability on each row is a count of that player own 2025 games rescaled to this fixture: it is empirical, it is uncalibrated, and it has never been forward-scored. Nothing here is a stake, a unit or an expected value.