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Scheme Scoreby Nothing But Bet
GlossaryPlayer prop gambling research. Not advice.

Pro footballWeek 1Research only

Chicago Bears

The defense this roster faces, what it allowed by position, every covered pass catcher with the market's number on him, and the evidence under each grade.

Board generated
Aug 28, 12:12 PM EDT
Line captured
2026-09-09
Dated to the day. One capture, so no movement.
Coverage table
2025 season
Prior season. Not a 2026 measurement of anything.

This week: away at Carolina Panthers. Kickoff and venue are carried by no source on this desk.

Covered players
7
With a posted line
4
Strongest grade
A+
Ungraded
0
WR
3
RB
2
TE
2

The defense opposite

The defense opposite

2025 season

Carolina Panthers on defence, over 17 games. Every percentage below is a share of the same denominator, this defence’s 565 dropbacks, and each one prints the count it came from so it can be checked against the number beside it. The rank is against the other thirty-one teams. None of this is 2026: a coordinator change or a personnel change is not in it.

Coverage and personnel rates
RateShare of dropbacks
Man16.5%93 of 565 dropbacksrank 31 of 32
Zone79.5%449 of 565 dropbacksrank 2 of 32
Press7.1%40 of 565 dropbacksrank 32 of 32
Disguised45.8%259 of 565 dropbacksrank 1 of 32
Middle of field closed55.2%312 of 565 dropbacksrank 10 of 32
Middle of field open44.8%253 of 565 dropbacksrank 23 of 32
Nickel personnel56.5%319 of 565 dropbacksrank 26 of 32
Base personnel15.8%89 of 565 dropbacksrank 22 of 32
DB heavy personnel27.1%153 of 565 dropbacksrank 4 of 32
Rotates to single high38.1%215 of 565 dropbacksrank 3 of 32
Rotates to two high7.6%43 of 565 dropbacksrank 22 of 32
Splits the safetiesnot reported
Coverage shells
ShellShare of dropbacks
Cover 02.3%13 of 565 dropbacksrank 26 of 32
Cover 114%79 of 565 dropbacksrank 27 of 32
Cover 211.5%65 of 565 dropbacksrank 23 of 32
Cover 2 man0%0 of 565 dropbacksrank 30 of 32
Cover 340.7%230 of 565 dropbacksrank 3 of 32
Cover 412%68 of 565 dropbacksrank 26 of 32
Cover 5not reported
Cover 615.2%86 of 565 dropbacksrank 6 of 32

Cover 5 is reported by neither coverage source for any team, and the split-safety rate arrives as an identical zero for all thirty-two with no count behind it. Both are shown as unreported. Neither is a defence that never plays them.

What that defense allowed, by position

prior season

The allowed totals are a completed prior season: the game counts of 17 to 21 describe a regular season plus playoffs. PFF does not label the season in this export. captured 2026-09-08, before any 2026 game, so the completed season behind these totals is 2025. Recorded as an inference, not as something the file says.

Allowed to pass catchers, prior season
PositionRank allowedPointsPer gameTargetsCatchesYardsTDYards per targetCatch rate
WRT10 of 32321.917.9over 18 games3091902345127.59on 309 targets61.5%of 309 targets
TET22 of 321608.9over 18 games12291109889on 122 targets74.6%of 122 targets
RB23 of 32356.819.8over 18 games987951835.29on 98 targets80.6%of 98 targets
Allowed to the quarterback, prior season
Rank allowedPointsPer gameCompletionsYardsTDInterceptionsYards per attempt
T8 of 32332.6518.5over 18 games360of 548 attempts396123167.23on 548 attempts

Rank 32 allowed the most fantasy points to the position and rank 1 allowed the least. A T prefix is a tie. The game counts run past seventeen because they include the playoffs.

Covered players

Grade mix on this roster: A+ 1B 2C 3F 1. The grade and the score are prior-season evidence; the receiving-yards line and its two prices are this week’s capture. 4 of 7 rows carry a line. A row without one was not quoted, which is not a line of zero.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
PlayerPosGradeScoreRec yds lineOverUnderSourcesWhy the score reads this way
Luther Burden IIIWRA+1.2456.5-115-1154
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Kyle MonangaiRBB0.62no line quotedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Olamide ZaccheausWRB0.30player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Colston LovelandTEC0.2851.5-115-1103
  • mildly unfavorable TE funnel vs Carolina Panthers
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Cole KmetTEC-0.0714.5-117-1146
  • mildly unfavorable TE funnel vs Carolina Panthers
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Rome OdunzeWRC-0.1543.5-115-1145
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
D'Andre SwiftRBF-1.39no line quotedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix

The evidence under the grades

Receiver evidence

2025 season

The board asserts a coverage lean. This is what it is asserting from: FantasyPoints’s own receiving splits, yards per route run against man and against zone with the routes behind each, the win rate in each, and the share of the offence the receiver held. Prior season, published under a 2026 board, and a rookie or a player who moved has no history to show.

Man and zone production, separation, and share of the offence
PlayerYards per route, manYards per route, zoneWin rate, manWin rate, zoneTarget shareRoute share
Luther Burden III2.6on 50 routes2.92on 172 routes30%on 50 routes7.6%on 170 routes11.9%over 15 games41%over 15 games
Kyle Monangai0.19on 37 routes1.06on 138 routes2.7%on 37 routes0.7%on 136 routesnot reportednot reported
Olamide Zaccheausno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Colston Loveland1.49on 83 routes2.23on 260 routes17.5%on 80 routes5.1%on 253 routes14.9%over 16 games59.2%over 16 games
Cole Kmet1on 57 routes1.18on 241 routes8.9%on 56 routes0.8%on 237 routes8.4%over 16 games51.1%over 16 games
Rome Odunze2.12on 89 routes1.78on 260 routes26.2%on 84 routes11.5%on 253 routes21.9%over 12 games79.7%over 12 games
D'Andre Swift2.87on 53 routes0.74on 198 routes3.8%on 52 routes1%on 196 routesnot reportednot reported

Where the fixture comes from. Who hosts is not in the Scheme Score export. It is read from the prop capture, which marks an away team, and cross-checked against the FantasyPoints matchup cards, which title themselves the same way. The two agree on 16 of 16 games. Neither source carries a venue, so none is shown.

Where the price comes from. From one dated prop capture, the same one the Scheme Score export now carries on its own priced rows, so the feed and this page state one answer rather than two. A line here is the consensus across independent sources in that capture, joined to the board by player name and team, and the two prices are the median quote at that line. A row with no line was quoted by nobody in the capture under the name and team the board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero. The Sources column says how many sources stood behind a number; it never says which ones, and no operator is named anywhere on this site. The capture is dated 2026-09-09 and is recorded to the day, not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely. One capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line.

Availability is not stated here. The 2026 week 1 practice report on this desk carries eleven rows across two of the thirty-two teams, and not one of them states a report status. Official inactives are published in no source here. So these pages say nothing about who plays, and a player appearing on them is not evidence that he will.

Scheme Score is a matchup feature built for player-prop gambling research. It is one input to a betting decision, not a standalone player projection, hit probability, expected value estimate, or stake size. Most rows on this board now carry a grade. The man and zone coverage signal is live: both the man/zone fit and the usage fit legs contribute to a grade, reflecting whether a receiver's style and usage lean toward the coverage this defense plays most. The slot coverage funnel is a direct measurement from PFF's slot coverage report, not an estimate. Some inputs are still missing. Direct TE and RB receiving funnels are not available: tight ends run through the linebacker coverage proxy, and running backs get no receiving funnel signal at all. Defender coverage grades still do not contribute to any grade, because that leg needs each defense's 2026 returning-share data, which does not exist here. The defensive coordinator table is an unfilled stub, so no coordinator discount is applied to any row. A small number of rows stay ungraded because the player name on that row is ambiguous and the grader skips rather than guesses. This board is two tiers. 134 of 290 rows are priced: they carry a posted receiving-yards line from one dated prop capture, joined to the board by player name and team, plus the median over and under price quoted at that line and a count of how many independent sources stood behind it. The other 156 rows carry no line, which means no source in that capture quoted them under the name and team this board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero, and it is not a claim that the player will not play. Which operator quoted a number is withheld everywhere in this feed; how many stood behind it is published instead. The capture is recorded to the day and not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely, and it is a single capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line here. The line does not enter Scheme Score: the grade is computed from prior-season scheme and usage evidence alone, so a grade is never a projection of the line beside it.