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Scheme Scoreby Nothing But Bet
GlossaryPlayer prop gambling research. Not advice.

Pro footballWeek 1Research only

Kansas City Chiefs

The defense this roster faces, what it allowed by position, every covered pass catcher with the market's number on him, and the evidence under each grade.

Board generated
Aug 28, 12:12 PM EDT
Line captured
2026-09-09
Dated to the day. One capture, so no movement.
Coverage table
2025 season
Prior season. Not a 2026 measurement of anything.

This week: hosting Denver Broncos. Kickoff and venue are carried by no source on this desk.

Covered players
11
With a posted line
6
Strongest grade
A
Ungraded
0
WR
5
RB
4
TE
2

Playing for a new team in 2026. Prior-season usage for these players was earned elsewhere: Kenneth Walker III.

The defense opposite

The defense opposite

2025 season

Denver Broncos on defence, over 17 games. Every percentage below is a share of the same denominator, this defence’s 698 dropbacks, and each one prints the count it came from so it can be checked against the number beside it. The rank is against the other thirty-one teams. None of this is 2026: a coordinator change or a personnel change is not in it.

Coverage and personnel rates
RateShare of dropbacks
Man36.1%252 of 698 dropbacksrank 4 of 32
Zone60.7%424 of 698 dropbacksrank 29 of 32
Press25.6%179 of 698 dropbacksrank 13 of 32
Disguised20.2%141 of 698 dropbacksrank 32 of 32
Middle of field closed50.9%355 of 698 dropbacksrank 16 of 32
Middle of field open49.1%343 of 698 dropbacksrank 17 of 32
Nickel personnel62.5%436 of 698 dropbacksrank 23 of 32
Base personnel17.8%124 of 698 dropbacksrank 16 of 32
DB heavy personnel18.1%126 of 698 dropbacksrank 8 of 32
Rotates to single high7.3%51 of 698 dropbacksrank 32 of 32
Rotates to two high12.3%86 of 698 dropbacksrank 11 of 32
Splits the safetiesnot reported
Coverage shells
ShellShare of dropbacks
Cover 06.6%46 of 698 dropbacksrank 3 of 32
Cover 123.9%167 of 698 dropbacksrank 6 of 32
Cover 211.5%80 of 698 dropbacksrank 23 of 32
Cover 2 man3.3%23 of 698 dropbacksrank 7 of 32
Cover 325.2%176 of 698 dropbacksrank 29 of 32
Cover 413.3%93 of 698 dropbacksrank 22 of 32
Cover 5not reported
Cover 610.7%75 of 698 dropbacksrank 12 of 32

Cover 5 is reported by neither coverage source for any team, and the split-safety rate arrives as an identical zero for all thirty-two with no count behind it. Both are shown as unreported. Neither is a defence that never plays them.

What that defense allowed, by position

prior season

The allowed totals are a completed prior season: the game counts of 17 to 21 describe a regular season plus playoffs. PFF does not label the season in this export. captured 2026-09-08, before any 2026 game, so the completed season behind these totals is 2025. Recorded as an inference, not as something the file says.

Allowed to pass catchers, prior season
PositionRank allowedPointsPer gameTargetsCatchesYardsTDYards per targetCatch rate
WR2 of 3229115.3over 19 games377219240986.39on 377 targets58.1%of 377 targets
TE19 of 32155.88.2over 19 games157106114277.27on 157 targets67.5%of 157 targets
RB4 of 32267.714.1over 19 games805342465.3on 80 targets66.3%of 80 targets
Allowed to the quarterback, prior season
Rank allowedPointsPer gameCompletionsYardsTDInterceptionsYards per attempt
T8 of 32350.9518.5over 19 games378of 653 attempts397521126.09on 653 attempts

Rank 32 allowed the most fantasy points to the position and rank 1 allowed the least. A T prefix is a tie. The game counts run past seventeen because they include the playoffs.

Covered players

Grade mix on this roster: A 1B 2C 6F 2. The grade and the score are prior-season evidence; the receiving-yards line and its two prices are this week’s capture. 6 of 11 rows carry a line. A row without one was not quoted, which is not a line of zero.

Kansas City Chiefs hosting Denver Broncos
PlayerPosGradeScoreRec yds lineOverUnderSourcesWhy the score reads this way
Rashee RiceWRA1.0059.5-114-1153
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Brashard SmithRBB0.57no line quotedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Kenneth Walker IIIRBB0.3815.5-120-1103
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
JuJu Smith-SchusterWRC0.30player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Isiah PachecoRBC0.20player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Kareem HuntRBC0.04player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Xavier WorthyWRC-0.0637.5-118-1133
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Marquise BrownWRC-0.11player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Tyquan ThorntonWRC-0.1119.5-115-1144
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Travis KelceTEF-1.0841.5-115-1143
  • unfavorable TE funnel vs Denver Broncos
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Noah GrayTEF-1.599.5-115-1146
  • unfavorable TE funnel vs Denver Broncos
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix

The evidence under the grades

Receiver evidence

2025 season

The board asserts a coverage lean. This is what it is asserting from: FantasyPoints’s own receiving splits, yards per route run against man and against zone with the routes behind each, the win rate in each, and the share of the offence the receiver held. Prior season, published under a 2026 board, and a rookie or a player who moved has no history to show.

Man and zone production, separation, and share of the offence
PlayerYards per route, manYards per route, zoneWin rate, manWin rate, zoneTarget shareRoute share
Rashee Rice0.82on 76 routes3.24on 153 routes18.7%on 75 routes5.3%on 150 routes26.2%over 8 games72.9%over 8 games
Brashard Smith0.42on 24 routes2.35on 65 routes0%on 23 routes0%on 65 routesnot reportednot reported
Kenneth Walker III1on 31 routes1.91on 129 routes0%on 31 routes1.6%on 127 routesnot reportednot reported
JuJu Smith-Schusterno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Isiah Pachecono source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Kareem Huntno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Xavier Worthy1.61on 112 routes1.42on 248 routes15.6%on 109 routes7.1%on 241 routes14.8%over 14 games66.8%over 14 games
Marquise Brownno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Tyquan Thornton1.65on 85 routes2.24on 133 routes22.4%on 85 routes11.5%on 131 routes7.1%over 14 games38.1%over 14 games
Travis Kelce1.16on 175 routes2.06on 307 routes16.9%on 172 routes6.1%on 295 routes18%over 17 games74.2%over 17 games
Noah Gray1on 53 routes0.84on 149 routes11.8%on 51 routes5.4%on 147 routes6%over 16 games33%over 16 games

Where the fixture comes from. Who hosts is not in the Scheme Score export. It is read from the prop capture, which marks an away team, and cross-checked against the FantasyPoints matchup cards, which title themselves the same way. The two agree on 16 of 16 games. Neither source carries a venue, so none is shown.

Where the price comes from. From one dated prop capture, the same one the Scheme Score export now carries on its own priced rows, so the feed and this page state one answer rather than two. A line here is the consensus across independent sources in that capture, joined to the board by player name and team, and the two prices are the median quote at that line. A row with no line was quoted by nobody in the capture under the name and team the board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero. The Sources column says how many sources stood behind a number; it never says which ones, and no operator is named anywhere on this site. The capture is dated 2026-09-09 and is recorded to the day, not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely. One capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line.

Availability is not stated here. The 2026 week 1 practice report on this desk carries eleven rows across two of the thirty-two teams, and not one of them states a report status. Official inactives are published in no source here. So these pages say nothing about who plays, and a player appearing on them is not evidence that he will.

Scheme Score is a matchup feature built for player-prop gambling research. It is one input to a betting decision, not a standalone player projection, hit probability, expected value estimate, or stake size. Most rows on this board now carry a grade. The man and zone coverage signal is live: both the man/zone fit and the usage fit legs contribute to a grade, reflecting whether a receiver's style and usage lean toward the coverage this defense plays most. The slot coverage funnel is a direct measurement from PFF's slot coverage report, not an estimate. Some inputs are still missing. Direct TE and RB receiving funnels are not available: tight ends run through the linebacker coverage proxy, and running backs get no receiving funnel signal at all. Defender coverage grades still do not contribute to any grade, because that leg needs each defense's 2026 returning-share data, which does not exist here. The defensive coordinator table is an unfilled stub, so no coordinator discount is applied to any row. A small number of rows stay ungraded because the player name on that row is ambiguous and the grader skips rather than guesses. This board is two tiers. 134 of 290 rows are priced: they carry a posted receiving-yards line from one dated prop capture, joined to the board by player name and team, plus the median over and under price quoted at that line and a count of how many independent sources stood behind it. The other 156 rows carry no line, which means no source in that capture quoted them under the name and team this board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero, and it is not a claim that the player will not play. Which operator quoted a number is withheld everywhere in this feed; how many stood behind it is published instead. The capture is recorded to the day and not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely, and it is a single capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line here. The line does not enter Scheme Score: the grade is computed from prior-season scheme and usage evidence alone, so a grade is never a projection of the line beside it.