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Scheme Scoreby Nothing But Bet
GlossaryPlayer prop gambling research. Not advice.

Pro footballWeek 1Research only

Pittsburgh Steelers

The defense this roster faces, what it allowed by position, every covered pass catcher with the market's number on him, and the evidence under each grade.

Board generated
Aug 28, 12:12 PM EDT
Line captured
2026-09-09
Dated to the day. One capture, so no movement.
Coverage table
2025 season
Prior season. Not a 2026 measurement of anything.

This week: hosting Atlanta Falcons. Kickoff and venue are carried by no source on this desk.

Covered players
11
With a posted line
4
Strongest grade
A
Ungraded
2
WR
6
TE
3
RB
2

The defense opposite

The defense opposite

2025 season

Atlanta Falcons on defence, over 17 games. Every percentage below is a share of the same denominator, this defence’s 626 dropbacks, and each one prints the count it came from so it can be checked against the number beside it. The rank is against the other thirty-one teams. None of this is 2026: a coordinator change or a personnel change is not in it.

Coverage and personnel rates
RateShare of dropbacks
Man20.9%131 of 626 dropbacksrank 20 of 32
Zone74.6%467 of 626 dropbacksrank 12 of 32
Press20.4%128 of 626 dropbacksrank 25 of 32
Disguised34.8%218 of 626 dropbacksrank 12 of 32
Middle of field closed59.4%372 of 626 dropbacksrank 4 of 32
Middle of field open40.6%254 of 626 dropbacksrank 29 of 32
Nickel personnel78.6%492 of 626 dropbacksrank 4 of 32
Base personnel19.3%121 of 626 dropbacksrank 14 of 32
DB heavy personnel1.4%9 of 626 dropbacksrank 28 of 32
Rotates to single high31.2%195 of 626 dropbacksrank 5 of 32
Rotates to two high3.5%22 of 626 dropbacksrank 30 of 32
Splits the safetiesnot reported
Coverage shells
ShellShare of dropbacks
Cover 00.5%3 of 626 dropbacksrank 32 of 32
Cover 119%119 of 626 dropbacksrank 15 of 32
Cover 22.7%17 of 626 dropbacksrank 32 of 32
Cover 2 man1.1%7 of 626 dropbacksrank 17 of 32
Cover 338.5%241 of 626 dropbacksrank 4 of 32
Cover 426%163 of 626 dropbacksrank 2 of 32
Cover 5not reported
Cover 67.3%46 of 626 dropbacksrank 19 of 32

Cover 5 is reported by neither coverage source for any team, and the split-safety rate arrives as an identical zero for all thirty-two with no count behind it. Both are shown as unreported. Neither is a defence that never plays them.

What that defense allowed, by position

prior season

The allowed totals are a completed prior season: the game counts of 17 to 21 describe a regular season plus playoffs. PFF does not label the season in this export. captured 2026-09-08, before any 2026 game, so the completed season behind these totals is 2025. Recorded as an inference, not as something the file says.

Allowed to pass catchers, prior season
PositionRank allowedPointsPer gameTargetsCatchesYardsTDYards per targetCatch rate
WR23 of 32369.521.7over 17 games3091892438207.89on 309 targets61.2%of 309 targets
TET3 of 32101.36over 17 games1057281637.77on 105 targets68.6%of 105 targets
RB15 of 32302.717.8over 17 games946952045.53on 94 targets73.4%of 94 targets
Allowed to the quarterback, prior season
Rank allowedPointsPer gameCompletionsYardsTDInterceptionsYards per attempt
16 of 32349.1520.5over 17 games331of 527 attempts377327167.16on 527 attempts

Rank 32 allowed the most fantasy points to the position and rank 1 allowed the least. A T prefix is a tie. The game counts run past seventeen because they include the playoffs.

Covered players

Grade mix on this roster: A 1C 2D 2F 4NG 2. The grade and the score are prior-season evidence; the receiving-yards line and its two prices are this week’s capture. 4 of 11 rows carry a line. A row without one was not quoted, which is not a line of zero.

Pittsburgh Steelers hosting Atlanta Falcons
PlayerPosGradeScoreRec yds lineOverUnderSourcesWhy the score reads this way
D.K. MetcalfWRA0.9448.5-114-1153
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Kenneth GainwellRBC0.07player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Scott MillerWRC-0.04player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Pat FreiermuthTED-0.4325.5-114-1154
  • unfavorable TE funnel vs Atlanta Falcons
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Jaylen WarrenRBD-0.4615.5-115-1143
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Jonnu SmithTEF-0.87player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable TE funnel vs Atlanta Falcons
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • favorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Darnell WashingtonTEF-0.9316.5-120-1144
  • unfavorable TE funnel vs Atlanta Falcons
  • favorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Calvin Austin IIIWRF-1.01player not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Roman WilsonWRF-1.19no line quotedno priceno pricenone
  • unfavorable man/zone fit from the receiver's man-vs-zone production split
  • unfavorable usage fit: target share tilts with this defense's coverage mix
Adam ThielenWRNGungradedplayer not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • no scheme evidence for this matchup (no alignment record or opponent signal)
  • ungraded
  • receiver alignment: player name is ambiguous across multiple alignment rows
  • skipped rather than guessed
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWRNGungradedplayer not matchedno priceno pricenone
  • no scheme evidence for this matchup (no alignment record or opponent signal)
  • ungraded
  • receiver alignment: player name is ambiguous across multiple alignment rows
  • skipped rather than guessed

The evidence under the grades

Receiver evidence

2025 season

The board asserts a coverage lean. This is what it is asserting from: FantasyPoints’s own receiving splits, yards per route run against man and against zone with the routes behind each, the win rate in each, and the share of the offence the receiver held. Prior season, published under a 2026 board, and a rookie or a player who moved has no history to show.

Man and zone production, separation, and share of the offence
PlayerYards per route, manYards per route, zoneWin rate, manWin rate, zoneTarget shareRoute share
D.K. Metcalf1.46on 121 routes2.4on 281 routes16%on 119 routes9.1%on 276 routes21.1%over 15 games85.5%over 15 games
Kenneth Gainwellno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Scott Millerno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Pat Freiermuth0.99on 96 routes2.01on 185 routes6.4%on 94 routes1.7%on 181 routes9.6%over 17 games50%over 17 games
Jaylen Warren2.25on 28 routes1.98on 132 routes0%on 27 routes0.8%on 129 routesnot reportednot reported
Jonnu Smithno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Darnell Washington1.29on 34 routes2.05on 134 routes6.5%on 31 routes4.5%on 132 routes8.5%over 16 games33.5%over 16 games
Calvin Austin IIIno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Roman Wilson2.33on 49 routes0.6on 87 routes15.2%on 46 routes8.1%on 86 routes5%over 13 games33.2%over 13 games
Adam Thielenno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached
Marquez Valdes-Scantlingno source matches this player by name and team, so nothing keyed on a player id is attached

Where the fixture comes from. Who hosts is not in the Scheme Score export. It is read from the prop capture, which marks an away team, and cross-checked against the FantasyPoints matchup cards, which title themselves the same way. The two agree on 16 of 16 games. Neither source carries a venue, so none is shown.

Where the price comes from. From one dated prop capture, the same one the Scheme Score export now carries on its own priced rows, so the feed and this page state one answer rather than two. A line here is the consensus across independent sources in that capture, joined to the board by player name and team, and the two prices are the median quote at that line. A row with no line was quoted by nobody in the capture under the name and team the board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero. The Sources column says how many sources stood behind a number; it never says which ones, and no operator is named anywhere on this site. The capture is dated 2026-09-09 and is recorded to the day, not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely. One capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line.

Availability is not stated here. The 2026 week 1 practice report on this desk carries eleven rows across two of the thirty-two teams, and not one of them states a report status. Official inactives are published in no source here. So these pages say nothing about who plays, and a player appearing on them is not evidence that he will.

Scheme Score is a matchup feature built for player-prop gambling research. It is one input to a betting decision, not a standalone player projection, hit probability, expected value estimate, or stake size. Most rows on this board now carry a grade. The man and zone coverage signal is live: both the man/zone fit and the usage fit legs contribute to a grade, reflecting whether a receiver's style and usage lean toward the coverage this defense plays most. The slot coverage funnel is a direct measurement from PFF's slot coverage report, not an estimate. Some inputs are still missing. Direct TE and RB receiving funnels are not available: tight ends run through the linebacker coverage proxy, and running backs get no receiving funnel signal at all. Defender coverage grades still do not contribute to any grade, because that leg needs each defense's 2026 returning-share data, which does not exist here. The defensive coordinator table is an unfilled stub, so no coordinator discount is applied to any row. A small number of rows stay ungraded because the player name on that row is ambiguous and the grader skips rather than guesses. This board is two tiers. 134 of 290 rows are priced: they carry a posted receiving-yards line from one dated prop capture, joined to the board by player name and team, plus the median over and under price quoted at that line and a count of how many independent sources stood behind it. The other 156 rows carry no line, which means no source in that capture quoted them under the name and team this board uses; that is unpriced, not a line of zero, and it is not a claim that the player will not play. Which operator quoted a number is withheld everywhere in this feed; how many stood behind it is published instead. The capture is recorded to the day and not to a clock time, so no reader may date it more finely, and it is a single capture, so there is no line movement and no closing line here. The line does not enter Scheme Score: the grade is computed from prior-season scheme and usage evidence alone, so a grade is never a projection of the line beside it.